RDRutherford

by **RDR** on Sun Jan 27, 2008 3:35 pm

America’s inflated asset prices must fall

Bernanke: Fed has been aggressive: stands ready to do more

Retail sales more than expected in January

Bernanke signals Fed to stay on easy course

U.S. Jan. durable-goods orders fall 5.3%

Bernanke's Missteps Are Making Things Worse

Philly manufacturing activity slows further in Feb

U.S. Jan. leading economic indicators index falls 0.1%

Retail sales more than expected in January Sales up a surprising 0.3% on autos and gas
*********************************************
Rapid deterioration Housing in deepest decline since the Great Depression, economist says

Consumer spending flat in January

Fed to conduct auctions 'as long as necessary'

U.S. foreclosures hit another record high, MBA says

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall 24,000 to 351,000

Retail sales sink 0.6% in February

by **RDR** on Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:59 pm

Stocks close dramatic week nearly unchanged from last Friday

U.S. stocks plunged Friday after Bear Stearns had to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve Board, shocking Wall Street and ending a week that saw one of the best trading days in five years wiped out by the biggest scare in the year-long credit crisis yet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 194.65 points to 11,951.09, giving it a weekly gain of 0.5%. The S&P 500 fell 27.34 points to 1,288.14, which translates into a weekly decline of 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 51.12 points to 2,212.49, leaving the index unchanged from a week ago. End of Story

Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points Two dissents show disagreement on board

The market had expected more.
Based on futures trading in Chicago, investor's bets implied a 100% chance of a cut of one percentage point.
...
Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America, said he had no doubt that the Fed would ease further.
He forecast rates would fall to 1.5% before the easing cycle was completed.
The decision not to match market expectations was signal a desire to go at a slower pace.
"It just shows the Fed is warning to ease now but it can't keep rates low forever," Levy said.

He forecast another half-point cut to 1.75% before the Fed was done.

Well not sure if the Fed should do exactly what the "Chicago Investor's" are thinking.

What Can the Fed Do?

New home sales fall to 13-year low

by **RDR** on Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:23 pm

Kind of going through all the old email alerts and thus have a compilation of nits and nacks... (Chronological order)

Orders for durable goods fall 1.7% in Feb.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Demand for machinery and other capital goods sank in February, driving orders for durable goods down 1.7%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected total orders to rise 0.5% after a revised 4.7% decline in January. Orders for capital goods - the kind of equipment businesses need to increase or modernize their productive capacity - fell 2.6% in February after a 1.8% decline in January. Machinery orders plunged a record 13.3% in February, offsetting a 5.4 increase in civilian aircraft bookings. Excluding transportation goods, orders fell 2.6%, the most in a year.

U.S. March consumer confidence down, outlook grim

Continuing its downward slide, U.S. consumer confidence fell in March, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, as expectations hit a 35-year-low, reaching levels not seen since the oil embargo and Watergate. The March consumer confidence index fell to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a March reading of 73.3. "Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon," said Lynn Franco, director of consumer research at the private Conference Board.

U.S. real consumer spending flat in February

U.S. consumer spending was flat in February after adjusting for inflation, the third consecutive month of weak consumer demand, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Inflation moderated in January, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month. Core consumer prices - which exclude food and energy costs - also rose 0.1% as expected by economists. Nominal incomes rose 0.5% in February, driven largely by the timing of some government transfer payments. Economists were looking for incomes to rise 0.3%.

Economy 'grinding to halt,' leading data say Leading indicators fall 0.3%, fifth straight decline

The coincident indicators -- the best overview of the current economy -- have been flat for three straight months, the private research group said. Read the full report.
"Growth will be weak this spring," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist for the Conference Board. "A small contraction in economic activity cannot be ruled out."
The leading indicators are designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead. The last time the leading index fell for five straight months was in early 2001, at the beginning of the last recession.

Recession began in December, signposts say

The outgoing head of the NBER, Martin Feldstein, said Friday that he believes the recession will be "substantially more severe" than recent downturns. "The situation is very bad, the situation is getting worse and the risks are that it could get very bad," he said in a speech to futures traders.

Consumer sentiment slips in March to 16-year low

U.S. consumer sentiment slipped in March, but not as much as expected, according to media reports Friday. The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index dropped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February, above the 69.0 expected by economists. It's the lowest in 16 years. The current conditions index improved to 84.6 from 83.8. The expectations index fell to 61.4 from 62.4, also the lowest since early 1992.

U.S. Feb consumer prices flat, core rate also unchanged

Inflation moderated in February after a few months of acceleration, the Labor Department said Friday. The consumer price index was unchanged in February following a 0.4% gain in January. Energy prices declined in the month, while food prices rose 0.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was also flat in February after a 0.3% gain in the previous month. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.2% in February. The core rate was also expected to rise 0.2%.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fall by 63,000 in February

In the clearest sign yet of a recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, the second straight decline in employment, the Labor Department reported Friday. It was the largest drop in payrolls since March 2003. Economists were looking for a gain of about 20,000. Payrolls for December and January were revised down by 46,000. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 4.8% in February from 4.9%, due to a 450,000 decline in the labor force, the largest drop in nearly five years. Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.3%, to $17.80 an hour.

In sign of contraction, U.S. Feb. ISM falls to 48.3%

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 48.3% in February from 50.7% in January. Readings under 50% indicate more firms are contracting than expanding. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to fall to 47.5%. The new orders index fell to 49.1% from 49.5%. The production index fell to 50.7% from 55.2%. Seven of 18 industries were growing in February.

Fed willing to cut more but inflation fears linger Signals swift rate hikes may be necessary at some point

The Federal Reserve confirmed that it is willing to do more to help the economy find its footing, but warned that nagging inflation worries may necessitate swift rate hikes once growth resumes, minutes of the latest meetings released Wednesday show.

U.S. Jan CPI up 0.4%, core up 0.3%

The underlying rate of U.S. inflation accelerated in January, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The consumer price index increased 0.4% in January, driven by 0.7% gains in both energy and food prices. But other prices were also higher. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 0.3%in January, the largest gain since June 2006. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.3% in January after a 0.4% gain in December. The core rate was expected to rise 0.2% after rising 0.2% in the previous month.

U.S. Feb. home builders' index rises slightly

U.S. homebuilders' mood improved slightly for the second straight month in February. The home builders' housing market index rose to 20 in February from 19 in January, the National Association of Home Builders reported Tuesday. Economists had expected the index to hold steady at 19. Traffic in model homes picked up in the last month, the NAHB said.

Pending home sales fall 1.5% in December

Sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 1.5% in December, a sign that home sales will continue to decline, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. The pending home sales index, based on contracts signed but not closed in December, was down 24.2% from the prior year's period. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, had also declined in November, after gains in September and October. In November, pending home sales declined about 3% from the prior month, compared with the prior estimate of a 2.6% decline.

U.S. Jan. ISM nonmanufacturing index falls sharply to 41.9%

Growth in the nonmanufacturing side of the U.S. economy contracted sharply, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 41.9% in January from 54.4% in December. The reading was well below the 53.0% expected by economists. Readings below 50% indicate most firms are contracting. The ISM services index was released early. ISM gave no explanation for the early release

Which of course causes:
[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={CE75D6DA-8C83-4F2B-8DF5-F54A060DB5B6}&siteid=nbs]Stock futures stumble as services sector contracts[/url]

by **RDR** on Tue Apr 01, 2008 4:09 pm

Double-digit declines rattle top automakers

U.S. Dec. factory orders rise 2.3% on investment goods

U.S. and foreign businesses stepped up their demand in December for capital equipment to expand production, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Core capital equipment orders rose 4.5% in December, revised up from 4.4% estimated a week ago, the government said. Factory orders increased 2.3% in December, slightly slower than the 2.5% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods increased 5% in December, revised down from 5.2% estimated a week ago. Orders for nondurable goods fell 0.4%.

[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={C45D0A7B-4774-4350-A9FE-F37CE6265B2B}&siteid=nbs]Dollar erases lows from downbeat jobs data Microsoft bid for Yahoo blunts impact of first jobs contraction in four years[/url]

Consumer sentiment rose in January, UMich says

U.S. consumer sentiment rose in January, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday by UMich and Reuters. The index rose to 78.4 in January from 75.5 in December. Economists expected a result of 79.0. The current conditions index rose to 94.4 from 91.0, while the expectations index gained to 68.1 from 65.6.

U.S. construction spending falls 1.1% in December

Spending on U.S. construction projects fell by 1.1% in December as outlays on private residential construction took another tumble. Year over year, construction spending is down 2.3%. The overall drop was bigger than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who were looking for a decline of 0.5% in December. Spending on home construction declined by 2.8% in December after falling by 3% in November.

U.S. Jan. nonfarm payrolls decline by 17,000

Job growth contracted in January for the first time in more than four years, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 17,000 in January much weaker than the 85,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.9% in January from 5.0% in the previous month. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.0%. Average hourly earnings increased 4 cents, or 0.2% to $17.75. Economists had been expecting a 0.2% gain. Earnings are up 3.7% in the past year. The average workweek fell to 33.7 hours from 33.8 hours in December. Economists were expecting the workweek to remain steady.

Beige Book sees slow, modest growth in most regions

The U.S. economy grew at a modest pace in most regions of the nation in late November and December, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. In its Beige Book report on the economy, the Fed noted that labor markets remain tight in most areas despite the sharp rise in the unemployment rate to 5% reported by the Labor Department in December. "Economic activity increased modestly during the survey period of mid-November through December, but at a slower pace compared with the previous survey," the Beige Book reported. Of 12 Fed banking districts, five reported slow or slowing activity, five reported modestly or slightly increasing activity, and two said conditions were mixed.

by **RDR** on Mon Apr 14, 2008 6:12 pm

Housing-aid plans move forward in Washington Senate OKs tax breaks, foreclosure funds as House mulls own plan

Critics say the Senate bill passed Thursday focuses too much on helping business, and too little on helping consumers. One of the most controversial provisions would enable businesses to use business losses to obtain refunds of prior four years' tax payments, up from the current law of two years.
Such a policy would have "small" cost-effectiveness coupled with "large" uncertainty about its effects, according to a January report from the Congressional Budget Office.

I also wonder about retroactive tax policies. I think any tax policy is to create incentives or disincentives for action to be done in the future. If people realize that they can use rent seeking activity to get back for prior mistakes, how is that preventing moral hazards from bubbling forth?

U.S. March import prices rise 2.8% vs. 2.2% expected

U.S. March PPI up 1.1% on higher energy, food costs

by **RDR** on Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:28 pm

Housing Prices Will Drop 25%

U.S. jobless claims fall 33,000 to 342,000

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level in two months in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending April 19 fell 33,000 to 342,000. It's the lowest level since the week ended February 16. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to rise 3,000 to 375,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 20,000 to 375,000 compared with the initial estimate of a rise of 17,000 to 373,000. The four-week average of initial claims fell 7,250 to 369,500. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits fell 65,000 to 2.93 million in the week ending April 12. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million.

by **RDR** on Tue Apr 29, 2008 10:26 am

April consumer confidence falls, outlook gloomy

by **RDR** on Tue May 20, 2008 2:01 pm

Producer prices rise tame 0.2% in April Core PPI surprises with 0.4% gain, yearly 3% gain is most in 17 years

Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged at 0.5%

The Bank of Japan on Tuesday, as expected, held interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, the lowest among the Group of Seven nations. The unanimous decision capped a two-day meeting by the central bank, its first since cutting its economic growth estimate and abandoning language calling for higher interest rates in its half-yearly outlook report. Attention now shifts to the bank's monthly economic report, due to be released around midafternoon, for further clues to the direction of monetary policy in the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial output sinks 0.7% in April Factory output sees biggest drop since Hurricane Katrina

U.S. April CPI up 0.2%, core rate up 0.1%

U.S. consumer inflation moderated in April, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The consumer price index increased 0.2% in April after a 0.3% gain in the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 0.1% in April after rising 0.2% in March. Economists were expecting the CPI and the core rate to rise 0.2%. Energy prices moderated after a large jump in March. However, food prices rose 0.9%, the largest gain since 1990.

Retail sales drop for 3rd time in past 5 months

U.S. retail sales fell for the third time in the past five months in April, led by a big decline in auto sales, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales fell 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.2% gain in March. Sales were up 2% in the past year. Sales over the past three months were down 0.4% compared with the prior three months. The figures are not adjusted for price changes. Sales were slightly stronger than the 0.3% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Trade gap narrows to $58.2 billion on fewer imports

In a sign of weaker global growth, both imports and exports fell sharply in March, driving the U.S. trade deficit down to $58.2 billion, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Nominal imports fell 2.9% to $206.7 billion, the largest decline in more than six years, despite record oil prices. Nominal exports dropped to $148.5 billion, the biggest drop in nearly three years, despite higher prices for U.S. farm products. After adjusting for inflation, the real trade gap was the lowest since November 2003. The weaker-than-expected trade gap implies an upward revision to the 0.6% first estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product growth.

Consumer sentiment falls in May, lowest since 1980

Consumer sentiment in May fell from the prior month, reaching its lowest level since 1980, according to a Friday media report. In recent months, high fuel and food prices, along with falling home values have pulled down sentiment. The U.S. consumer sentiment index in May fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April, according to a Friday report from University of Michigan/Reuters. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a result of 61.0.

Housing starts surge on apartment construction

U.S. home builders broke ground on 8.2% more homes in April, led by a 36% increase in multi-family units, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.032 million, far more than the 954,000 estimated for March or the 939,000 expected by economists. Starts of single-family homes declined for the 12th straight month, falling 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, the lowest since January 1991. Building permits increased 4.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 978,000.

U.S. April payrolls down 20,000, job rate falls to 5.0%

The U.S. labor market was not as weak as expected in April, the government said Friday. The economy lost 20,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, according to a survey of business establishments, much less than the 81,000 lost in March and way below the 78,000 decline expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate inched down to 5.0% in April from 5.1% in March. Economists were expecting the unemployment rate to tick up to 5.2%

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 17,000 to 372,000

U.S. economy has weakened since mid-March: Beige Book

Economic conditions have weakened across the nation, according to the Federal Reserve's most up-to-date report released Wednesday. Consumer spending has fizzled out, labor market conditions are worsening, and manufacturing activity is treading water, according to the Fed's Beige Book collection of anectodal information from its 12 regional banks. At the same time, inflation appears to be strengthening, the report said. There is no sign of pickup in housing and credit conditions were seen as worsening. Banks are tightening standards at the same time consumer demand is weakening for loans. One bright spot is that foreign visitors are flocking to the U.S. to take advantage of the low value of the dollar relative to the currencies of major trading partners.

U.S. March housing starts down 11.9% to 947,000

Bank of England cuts key rate to 5% 'Credit conditions have tightened,' note policymakers

Fed, 4 other central banks take steps to help credit markets

The Federal Reserve announced plans Wednesday to ease elevated pressures in credit markets. The Fed will inject cash into the markets through auction of short-term funds. The Fed also announced foreign exchange swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. The Bank of Canada is also a partner in the liquidity plan. The first auction will be held on Monday Dec. 17.

Import prices rise 2.7%, the most in 17 years Nonfuel import prices rise 0.5% because of higher commodities prices

by **RDR** on Fri May 23, 2008 9:01 am

ECONOMIC REPORT Unsold houses rise to 23-year high in April Sales decline 1% even as prices plunge 8% year-on-year
We bought our house (condo) in April! LOL.

Because the inventory figures are not seasonally adjusted, "the April data is probably not as terrible as it looks," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital. Typically, inventories rise about 7% in April, as the spring and summer sales season kicks into high gear.

The problem with not seasonally adjusting factors. Bad Idea.

U.S. Q1 OFHEO home prices down 1.7%

In the first quarter U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% -- the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Prices fell 3.1% in the past year. In the prior quarter, prices declined 1.4%. For March, prices fell 0.4%. The OFHEO index is based on repeat sales of homes mortgaged through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 9,000 to 365,000

First-time claims for state unemployment dropped by 9,000 to 365,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending May 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims were the lowest since the week ended April 5. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000 to 372,250. The number of continuing jobless claims was unchanged for the week ending May 10, at 3.07 million. The four-week average of those claims rose by 31,750, to 3.05 million.

[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={B0946F64-DB78-4630-81ED-6DE5E1258C17}&siteid=nbs]Boone Pickens sees $150 a barrel oil this year[/url]

Fed's Kohn signals intention to hold rates steady

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn gave the clearest signal to date Tuesday that U.S. central bankers want to hold short-term interest rates steady in the weeks ahead until the outlook for the economy becomes clearer. "With the information now in hand, it is my judgment that monetary policy appears to be appropriately calibrated for now to promote both rising employment and moderating inflation," Kohn said in a speech to a business group in New Orleans. Kohn is considered to be one of the most influential policy-makers on the Fed's board. Fed watchers had already picked up hints that the Fed wanted to hold rates steady for a lengthy period, but the evidence before Kohn's speech was scanty.

by **RDR** on Tue Jun 03, 2008 9:36 am

Fed chief Bernanke defends the dollar Tough talk's intended to put floor under greenback, analysts say
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/f ... aspx?guid=
%7B1EBCD78C%2DCB1B%2D444B%2DA821%2D987EF69A841B%7D&siteid=bnb

Payrolls headed for another fall, economists say

by **RDR** on Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:15 am

Pending home sales index up 6.3% in April: NAR

An index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes rose 6.3% in April from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 13.1% from the April 2007 level. By region, the April pending home sales index fell only in the Northeast, with a 1.9% decline. The index rose 13.0% in the Midwest, 8.3% in the West and 4.6% in the South.

Oil scores biggest daily dollar gain on record Risk of Israeli attack on Iran, dollar weakness lift crude prices by almost $11

U.S. May ISM manufacturing index 49.6% vs 48.6% in April

The nation's manufacturers continued to cut back production in May, but at a slower rate than over the past three months, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index inched higher to 49.6% in May from 48.6% in April. This is the fourth straight month the index has been below 50%. The size of the rise was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to inch higher to 48.7%. Readings below 50% indicate contraction. The index was last over 50% in January. Economists say export industries are keeping the sector from weakening significantly.

Factory output up 0.4%, best gain in 10 months

AP Clueless About Economic News

Led by an increase in motor vehicles, the output of U.S. factories rose 0.4% in July, the best gain in 10 months, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Overall, industrial production at the nation's mines, utilities and factories increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in July as expected, despite a 1.9% drop in output of utilities. Output of mines increased 0.9% in July. After peaking in January, output is down 0.1% in the past year. Capacity utilization - key gauge of inflationary pressures - rose a tenth to 79.9% in July, still far below the level that would signal tight supply chains.

by **RDR** on Wed Aug 20, 2008 9:52 am

Single-family housing permits fall to 26-year low Housing starts plunge 11%, payback for temporary NYC surge in June

Japan freezes rates, lowers economic outlook

Builders still gloomy, but see glimmer of hope Sentiment index remains at record-low level, but expectations rise

Consumer prices jump 0.8% in July

U.S. consumer prices jumped a greater-than-expected 0.8% in July, marked by big increases in energy, food, clothing and cigarettes, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The core consumer price index - which excludes volatile food and energy prices - rose 0.3% for the second straight month. The report was much worse than expected. Economists had predicted the seasonally adjusted CPI to rise 0.5% and the core CPI to increase 0.2%. Consumer prices are up 5.6% in the past year, the biggest year-over-year increase since January 1991. The core CPI has risen 2.5% in the past year, the biggest gain since January.

U.S. July retail sales fall 0.1%

U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July, as falling auto sales offset in increase in gasoline sales sparked by higher prices, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Excluding the 2.4% drop in vehicle sales, seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.4% in July. Excluding the 0.8% rise in gasoline sales, retail sales fell 0.2%. Excluding both autos and gas, sales rose 0.3%. Sales were a bit stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to fall 0.3% in July. Excluding autos, sales were expected to rise 0.5%. Sales in June were revised higher to a 0.3% gain from 0.1% originally estimated

U.S. trade deficit falls to $56.8 billion on record exports

The U.S. trade gap narrowed by 4.1% to $56.8 billion in June on record exports and a decline in non-oil imports, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. The non-petroleum trade deficit fell to the lowest level in five years, the government said. Exports jumped 4% in June to a record $164.4 billion, the biggest gain in four years. Imports rose 1.8% to a record $221.2 billion, largely because of the record $117 price for a barrel of crude oil. After adjusting for inflation, the real trade deficit fell by 10.3% to the lowest level in 6 1/2 years.

by **RDR** on Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:08 am

U.S. July durable goods orders rise surprising 1.3%

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods surged in July, rising 1.3% on strong transportation equipment demand, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a gain in orders of 0.2%. Excluding transportation goods, orders rose 0.7%. New orders for durable goods in June were revised to a gain of 1.3% from a prior estimate of 0.8%. For July, shipments of manufactured goods rose 2.5%, following a gain of 0.9% in the prior month. Both inventories and unfilled orders in July rose 0.8%.

Growth concern dominated Fed closed-door talks: Aug. minutes

Second-quarter growth revised significantly higher Expansion in U.S. GDP pegged at 3.3%, could be strongest for some time

Thoma's Post: GDP Growth Revised Upward

U.S. personal income, spending fall in July

Real consumer spending fell 0.4% in July, the Commerce Department reported Friday. This is the biggest drop since June 2004. Nominal spending rose 0.2%. Personal income fell 0.7% in July, the biggest drop since August 2005. Real disposable incomes fell 1.7% in July. This is the second straight large monthly drop in the wake of the government stimulus payments. Inflation surged in the month. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% in July compared with June and is up 2.4% in the past year. This is the largest gain since September 2006. Wall Street economists had expected a 0.4% decline in incomes, a 0.2% gain in nominal spending and a 0.3% rise in the core PCE.

Services side of U.S. economy expanded in August

Economic activity in the nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy expanded slightly in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 50.6% in August from 49.5% in July. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a result of 49.3%. Readings over 50% indicate more firms were growing than contracting. The new-orders index rose to 49.7% from 47.9%. Meanwhile, the employment index declined to 45.4% from 47.1%. The production index rose to 51.6% from 49.6%. Ten of 18 industries reported growth in August.

U.S. July factory orders rise 1.3%, core orders gain

Businesses stepped up their demand in July for capital equipment, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Core capital equipment orders rose 2.5%, the government said. Overall new orders rose 1.3% in July, compared with 1% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods rose 1.3% in July, while orders for nondurable goods rose 1.2%.

U.S. consumer confidence rises again; job concerns persist

U.S. consumer confidence rose in August - the second consecutive month of gains - but the level remained relatively low and job concerns persisted, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The August consumer confidence index rose to 56.9 from a July reading of 51.9. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an August reading of 53. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 32% in August from 30.2% in July. Meanwhile, the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months fell to 25.8% from 32.4%.

U.S. June Case-Shiller home prices down 15.9% in past year

The decline in U.S. home prices picked up speed in June, with prices down a record 15.9% in the past year for 20 key cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.

by **RDR** on Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:42 am

Unemployment rate unexpectedly soars to 6.1% Nonfarm payrolls fall by 84,000 in August, more than expected

U.S. Aug. industrial output plunges 1.1%

Led by a big drop in auto production, industrial output plunged 1.1% in August, the biggest drop since Hurricane Katrina three years ago, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. The decline was much worse than the 0.3% decline expected by economists. Industrial production has now fallen 1.5% in the past year and 2% since the peak in January. Falling motor vehicle production accounted for about half the drop in output in August, the Fed added. Manufacturing output declined 1% in August. Capacity utilization - a key gauge of inflationary pressures stemming from industrial bottlenecks - dropped by a full percentage point to 78.7%, the lowest in nearly four years.

Single-family building permits fall to 26-year low

Home building tumbled again in August, with the number of new building permits for single-family homes dropping to a 26-year low, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Starts of new homes fell 6.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 895,000, the lowest in 17 years, and much weaker than the 955,000 rate expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Starts of single-family homes fell 1.9% to a 17-year low of 630,000 annualized units. Building permits for single- and multiple-family dwellings fell 8.9% to a 26-year low of 854,000 annualized units, with permits for single-family homes dropping 5.1% to 554,000, also a 26-year low.

Stocks stabilize, but critical insurer teeters

Leading indicators fall 0.5% in August

The U.S. economy looks to weaken further in coming months. The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.5% in August after a 0.7% drop in July, the Conference Board reported Thursday. "The good news on lower gas prices is more than offset by renewed, even intensified, financial market turmoil. The economy right now is so slow that it doesn't have much cushion for shocks like the recent bailouts and bankruptcies," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research group.

by **RDR** on Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:38 pm

SEC to temporarily ban short-selling: report

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission intends to temporarily ban short-selling, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday night. It's unclear if the commission has approved the move, the Journal reported. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were briefing congressional leaders Thursday night. The U.S. move would follow a similar action by U.K. regulators on Thursday.

SEC halts short selling in 799 financial institutions

Central banks in coordinated effort to boost liquidity Fed provides additional $180 billion for short-term dollar auctions

Treasury will insure public offered money funds

The U.S. Treasury said it's established a temporary guaranty program for U.S. money market funds. For the next year, the U.S. Treasury will insure holdings of any publicly offered money market mutual fund, retail and institutional, that pays a fee to participate. President George W. Bush approved the use of existing authorities by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr. to make available as necessary the assets of the Exchange Stabilization Fund for up to $50 billion. "Concerns about the net asset value of money market funds falling below $1 have exacerbated global financial market turmoil and caused severe liquidity strains in world markets," Treasury said.

Consumer prices fall 0.1% on weaker energy prices Core CPI up 0.2%, a sign of moderating inflationary pressures

Consumer sentiment rises sharply in September

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level this year in September as gasoline prices fell, according to media reports on the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index released Friday. The index rose to 73.1 in September from 63.0 in August. Economists were predicting a slight gain to 64.

Crude futures set for biggest daily price leap ever

by **RDR** on Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:33 am

Stocks surge as Dodd says rescue package agreement reached

Stock indexes rally on optimism for bank bailout

Wachovia shares fall after WaMu failure

Fed pumps more dollars into global markets to ease strains

The Federal Reserve on Monday announced that it was providing more liquidity into global money markets to ease recent strains. The Fed said it was boosting the size of its auctions of liquidity to commercial banks and the size of its swap agreements from a number of foreign central banks to $620 billion from $290 billion. In addition, the Fed announced a new forward auction to provide lending to banks over the year-end. "These steps are undertaken to mitigate pressures evident in the term funding markets in the United States and abroad," the Fed said in a statement. "By committing to provide a very large quantity of term funding, the Fed actions should reassure financial market participants that financing will be available against good collateral, lessening concerns about funding and rollover risk," the Fed added. Central banks stand ready to do more, the statement said.

Flat spending in August signals weak consumption Core inflation posts biggest yearly gain in 13 years

Asian markets rise after U.S. bailout bill unveiled

U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index plunges to 43.5%

The nation's manufacturers cut back production at a much faster pace than expected in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. This is the lowest level since October 2001. The ISM index plunged to 43.5% in September from 49.9% in August. This is the biggest drop in the index since 1984. The drop surprised economists. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip only a bit to 49.6%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The ISM index has been holding near 50 since the summer. The previous low this year was 48.3 in February. Economists said the ISM index was near recessionary levels.

U.S. Sept. ADP employment index falls 8,000 jobs

Employment dropped by 8,000 in the private sector of the U.S. economy in September, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. Economists were expecting the ADP index to fall 65,000 after it lost a revised 37,000 in August. The ADP index has shown a much stronger job market this year than the government's nonfarm payroll report has. Economists expect a loss of 103,000 in nonfarm payrolls when it is reported Friday.

U.S. stocks rocket higher in rebounding from record losses

U.S. August existing home sales down 2% to 4.91 mln pace

Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos fell 2.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to hit 4.93 million. Resales have fallen 10.7% in the past year. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 7% to 4.26 million, an 10.4 month supply at the current sales pace. This is the lowest level since March. The median sales prices fell 9.5% in the past year to $203,100. For July, resales rose a revised 3.5%, compared with the prior estimate of a 3.1% rise.

Bernanke vague about timing of turnaround

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke agreed Wednesday with the consensus of market economists that there are signs of a broad slow-down underway in the U.S. economy, but offered little insight into the Fed's thinking about the timing of any turnaround. In testimony prepared for the Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke only said the economy would "gradually pick up" as financial markets return to normal and the housing contraction runs its course. But he left out when he expects these two events to happen. Despite the grim growth outlook, Bernanke said that the Fed's concern about higher inflation is still on par with its worries about slower growth. He said both remain "significant" concerns for the Fed. He did say that news on inflation has been more favorable and there has been some easing of inflation expectations. But he did not declare victory, saying the inflation outlook "remains highly uncertain," noting that oil prices have spiked in the past few days.

by **RDR** on Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:09 am

U.S. Aug. factory orders drop 4%, most in 2 years

Demand for U.S. factory goods dropped at the fastest rate in two years in August on much lower orders for metals, machinery and vehicles, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Factory orders fell 4%, worse than the 3% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods fell 4.8% in August, revised lower from the 4.5% estimate provided a week ago. Shipments and orders for nondurable goods fell 3.3%, largely because of lower prices for crude oil and gasoline. Excluding the 9.1% drop in transportation orders, factory orders fell 3.3%, the biggest drop since September 2001.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 1,000 to 497,000

U.S. weekly jobless claims remained at their highest level in seven years, the Labor Department reported Thursday, as people in the hurricane-hit states of Louisiana and Texas filed for benefits. For the week ended Sept. 27, seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose 1,000, to 497,000 - the highest level since late September 2001. Without the hurricane-related effects, initial claims would have been about 439,000. The four-week average of claims rose 11,500 to 474,000 -- the highest since October 2001. For the week ended Sept. 20, continuing claims rose 48,000 to 3.59 million -- the highest since September 2003. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 46,750 to 3.53 million -- the highest since October 2003.

Ford U.S. sales fall 34.6% to 120,788 vehicles in September

Ford on Wednesday reported a 34.6% drop in September U.S. sales to 120,788 vehicles from 184,612 in September 2007. September marked the lowest sales month so far this year for Ford and the industry, the automaker said. Ford, Lincoln and Mercury combined vehicle sales fell 33.8% to 116,734 units while Volvo sales slumped 51.8% to 4,054. Truck sales slid 39.5% to 76,281 units with sales of the flagship F-Series pickup down 41.6% to 32,727 units. "Consumers and businesses are in a very fragile place. An already weak economy compounded by very tight credit conditions has created an atmosphere of caution," said Jim Farley, vice president of marketing and communications.

House approves historic $700 billion financial bailout bill

The House of Representatives voted to approve a revised $700 billion bailout plan for the financial markets on Friday, just four days after their rejection of the original bailout bill sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an historic 777-point drop. The House's vote follows the Senate's approval on Wednesday and clears the way for President Bush's signature. Passage came over the objections of some members who balked at tax provisions in the bill and giving the Treasury secretary extraordinary power to buy bad assets.

ECONOMIC REPORT Payrolls sink 159,000, worst job loss in 5 years Hidden unemployment rises to 11%, highest in 14 years

U.K. working to finalize financial bailout plan: WSJ

Bernanke shifts toward rate cut given worse economic outlook

The worsening outlook for U.S. growth means the Federal Reserve should rethink its neutral stance toward monetary policy, said Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday. In light of developments - where the outlook for growth has worsened while the outlook for inflation has improved, "the Fed will need to consider whether the current stance of policy remains appropriate," Bernanke said in a speech prepared for delivery to a meeting of the National Association of Business Economics. The Fed has maintained a balanced, or neutral, stance towards future rate moves since April - by signaling to the market that the risk of a downturn and the risk of higher prices were roughly even. Bernanke's speech suggests that he believes the financial turmoil has tipped the scale towards the threat of a serious slowdown. In his remarks, Bernanke said that "subdued" growth could linger next year given the turmoil in financial markets.

Fed moves to buy commercial paper to ease market strain

The Federal Reserve announced Tuesday it is going to buy commercial paper in an effort to restart a market that has virtually shut down in recent weeks. In another unprecedented move to combat the credit crunch, the Fed said it would set up a special purpose vehicle to purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper. Lending in the commercial paper market has shrunk in recent weeks given the turmoil in U.S. financial markets. The Fed said that the Bush Administration believed the move was necessary and will make a special deposit with the central bank to support the facility. "By eliminating much of the risk that eligible issuers will not be able to repay investors by rolling over their maturing commercial paper operations, this facility should encourage investors to once again engage in term lending in the commercial paper market," the Fed said in a statement. The Fed did not give an estimate of how much commercial paper it would purchase.

Fed, Treasury announce new steps to help financial markets

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department separately announced Monday new steps to deal with the continuing financial market turmoil. The Fed said it would increase the size of its loans to banks to a potential $900 billion. The central bank announced that it will begin to pay interest on bank reserves. This will give the Fed "greater scope" to address conditions in credit market. The Treasury actions were aimed at the massive borrowing needs required under the new mortgage financing plan approved by Congress last week. Treasury said it will make adjustments to its auction calendar by increasing the size of bill and note auctions and continuing to issue cash management bills, some of longer-duration. In addition, the department said it was considering bringing back the 3-year note in November and taking other steps. The Fed said it would work with Treasury "on ways to provide additional support for term unsecured funding markets."

by **RDR** on Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:35 pm

Fed, major central banks slash rates More moves expected in effort to stabilize financial system

Pending home sales index rises 7.4% in August

Despite a credit crunch that has driven world central banks to slash interest rates, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes rose 7.4% in August from the prior month. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was up 8.8% from the prior year. In August pending home sales rose in all four regions, with a gain of 18.4% in the West, 8.4% in the Northeast, 3.6% in the Midwest and 2.3% in the South. The July pending home sales index was revised to a decline of 2.7% from a prior estimate of a 3.2% fall. It's unclear to what extent contract activity will be impacted by the credit disruptions, said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.

Euro Falls to 14-Month Low as Credit Crisis Spreads to Europe

Paulson gives new detail of bank ownership plan

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Friday gave some new details of the emerging plans by the federal government to inject capital directly into a "broad array" of financial firms. In a statement after the G7 meeting, Paulson said that officials are working on a "standardized program that is open to a broad array of financial institutions." The plan is to attract private capital to complement the government's funds, he said. Paulson went out of his way to say existing shareholders would be protected, saying the government would only make the purchases through a "broadly available equity program" without any voting power, "except with the market standard terms to protect our rights as investors."

Main Street Bank of Northville, Mich. fails, 14th of year

Main Street Bank of Northville, Mich. became the 14th bank failure of the year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation late Friday. FDIC said it approved the assumption of all Main Street deposits by Monroe Bank & Trust of Monroe, Mich. Main Street Bank had total assets of $98 million in total assets and $86 million in total deposits as of Oct 7. FDIC estimates the failure will cost its Deposit Insurance Fund between $33 million and $39 million.

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall 20,000 to 478,000

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 20,000 in the latest week, to 478,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. However, the four-week average of new claims rose by 8,250, to 482,500, and the number of Americans continuing to collect benefits also climbed by 56,000, to 3.56 million. The four-week average of new claims is at a seven-year high, while continuing claims are at a five-year high.

Bank bailout will protect American economy, Bush says

President Bush said Tuesday the U.S. government is acting decisively to stabilize the financial system and help the economy recover. Bush said the plan developed by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve is designed to defend free enterprise, not destroy it. Speaking after a meeting with his top advisers, Bush detailed several steps the government will take, including taking a temporary equity ownership stake in banks. The government will also insure new bank debts and non-interest-bearing deposits. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak later in the morning to provide more details.

U.S stocks snap 8-day losing streak; major indexes up 11%

Consumer prices show no growth on weaker energy prices

U.S. consumer prices showed no growth in September, with a 0% change from the prior month, as energy prices declined and food prices rose, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Energy prices dropped 1.9% after seasonal adjustments. For the second consecutive month, food prices rose 0.6%. The core consumer price index - which excludes food and energy prices - rose 0.1% in September. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for the overall and core consumer prices to each rise 0.2%.

Producer prices fall 0.4% in September, energy prices down

U.S. producer prices fell 0.4% in September - the second consecutive month of declines -- as energy prices dropped and food prices rose, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Excluding food and energy, core producer prices rose 0.4% last month. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a decrease of 0.6% in overall PPI, and a 0.2% increase in the core rate. Producer prices are up 8.7% over the past 12 months. Prices for crude core goods fell a record 9.4% in September, compared with the previous record drop of 7.7% in 1974. In August, overall producer prices fell 0.9%, while the core gained 0.2%.

by **RDR** on Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:52 pm

Consumer sentiment drops in October

In the midst of global efforts to shore up markets and economies, U.S. consumer sentiment dropped in October, according to a media report on the University of Michigan/Reuters index released Friday. The index fell to 57.5 in October, compared with a reading of 70.3 in late September. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting an October result of 64.5

Housing starts fall 6% to 17-year low in September

Construction of new homes dwindled to a 17-year low in September as home builders sought to reduce the number of unsold homes in an elusive quest to find the bottom of the historic housing collapse. Housing starts fell 6.3% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000, the lowest since January 1991, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Starts of single-family homes tumbled 12% to 544,000, the lowest since February 1982. The September estimates were much worse than the annual rate of 870,000 that was expected by economists. Building permits fell 8.3% to 786,000, a 27-year low. Permits for single-family houses fell 3.8% to 532,000, the lowest in 26 years.

THE FED Bernanke endorses fiscal stimulus Economy faces risk of 'protracted slowdown,' Fed chairman says
Heard part of his speech this morning and while it was good that Ben recognized that if the Fiscal Policies before had been more prudent then the Federal Government could have been more reactive in this economic instability but stating a Fiscal Stimulus at this time seemed foolish at best. Especially considering the political obstacles to any Fiscal Stimulus at this time.

Fed Beige Book paints picture of broad Sept. slowdown

A broad slowdown in economic activity was underway by the end of September, according to the latest report on economic activity, known as the Beige Book, released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Consumer spending was down in most regions. Factory activity was also slow. Even more worrisome was the downturn in "nonfinancial services," which has been the backbone of economic activity. At the same time, credit was scarce as banks tightened standards due the financial market stress. Inflation pressures did ease a bit. Labor market conditions also deteriorated. The agricultural sector was one bright spot, the report said. The Fed will meet on October 28-29 to set monetary policy. The financial market is expecting another interest rate cut.

Existing-home sales jump 5.5% to 13-month high

Boosted by foreclosures and plunging prices, sales of pre-owned homes and condos rose sharply in September to the highest level in 13 months, an industry trade group reported Friday. Existing-home sales rose 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million, the National Association of Realtors estimated Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to rise to a 5 million pace. It was the largest monthly percentage increase in five years. Sales of existing homes were 1.4% higher in September than they were a year earlier; it was the first year-on-year increase in nearly three years. The median sales price fell 9% in the past year to $191,600, the lowest since April 2004. Prices plunged 18.5% in the West region, driven by high levels of distressed sales.

Windows Live Hotmail

Jobless claims rise 15,000 to 478,000

New applications for state unemployment benefits increased by 15,000 in the week ending Oct. 18 to a seasonally adjusted 478,000, boosted by about 12,000 new claims stemming from Hurricane Ike, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims - which smoothes out one-time events such as holidays or weather - fell by 4,500 to 480,250 from a seven-year high of 484,750 the previous week. The number of people collecting regular state unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.72 million in the week ending Oct. 11, while the four-week average of continuing claims rose by 44,250 to 3.68 million, the highest in more than five years.

by **RDR** on Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:42 pm

Alpha Bank & Trust becomes 16th bank failure of year

U.S. Sept. new-home sales rise 2.7% to 464,000 pace

Sales of new homes rose an estimated 2.7% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 in September, the Commerce Department reported Monday, close to the 460,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales surged 23% in the West, bouncing back from a similar decline in August. Nationally, sales in September were down 33% compared with September 2007. The inventory of unsold homes fell a record 7.3% in September to 394,000, the lowest in four years. In the past year, inventories have fallen 25.4%, the biggest drop since the government began tracking the data in 1963. The median sales price fell to $218,400, down 9.1% in the past year.

Orders for durables rise 0.8% in Sept., lifted by aircraft

Strong demand for airplanes lifted orders for U.S.-made durable goods to a 0.8% gain in September, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The 0.8% increase was much stronger than the 1% decline expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.1%. Orders for core capital equipment - the kind of investments businesses make to expand or update their productive capacity - fell 1.4% in September after a 2.2% decline in August. Shipments rose 0.2% after a 4.2% decline in August. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 0.4% in September after a 2.9% decline.

American Express to cut 10% of workforce, or 7,000 jobs

GDP falls 0.3% in third quarter on dive in spending

The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, as consumer spending declined at the fastest pace in 28 years, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The drop was close to economists' expectations that the economy would shrink 0.5%. Final sales to domestic purchasers fell 1.8%, the largest decline in 17 years. Consumer spending dropped 3.1%, the first decline in 17 years and the biggest drop in 28 years, while business investment fell 1%. Investments in homes fell for the 11th straight quarter. Inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes fell 8.7%, the largest quarterly decline since the record-keeping began in 1947.

AIG plowing through billions and billions

U.S. ISM factory index plunges again in October

The nation's manufacturers continued to cut back production sharply in October for the second straight month, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 38.9% in October from 43.5% in September. This is the lowest level since September 1982. The size of the decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to fall to 41.5% as all regional manufacturing surveys were weak in October. Both new orders and production fell to their lowest level since the early 1980s. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The ISM index had plunged in September to recession territory of 43.5% from 49.9% in August.

Fed cut rates by half point to 1%, staying aggressive

The Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday lowered its target for overnight interest rates by a half point to 1.0%. At the same time, the central bank signaled that downside risks to growth remain, indicating that more rate cuts could come. The extraordinary financial market stress over the past month has put the economy at greater risk of a recession. The vote to lower the Fed funds rate was unanimous. At the same time, the Fed lowered the discount rate to 1.25%.

by **RDR** on Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:49 am

Continuing jobless claims hit 25-year high Weekly initial claims fall 4,000 to 481,000, Labor Department reports

Houston's Franklin Bank closed, 18th failure this year
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/f ... iteid=bnbh

American Express approved to become bank-holding company

got approval from the Federal Reserve Board to form a bank-holding company, the central bank said late Monday. The Fed waived the normal 30-day waiting period on the application. "In light of the unusual and exigent circumstances affecting the financial markets and all other facts and circumstances, the board has determined that emergency conditions exist that justify expeditious action on this proposal in accordance with the provisions of the [Bank Holding Company] Act and the board's regulations," the Fed said.

Unemployment rate leaps to 14-year high of 6.5%

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 14-year high of 6.5% in October as nearly a quarter million jobs were lost, the Labor Department reported Friday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 240,000 in October following a revised decline of 284,000 in September, which was the largest job loss in seven years. So far in 2008, a total of 1.18 million jobs have been lost, with 651,000 coming in just the past three months. The October employment report was much worse than expected. Economists thought the jobless rate would rise to 6.3% from 6.1% in September, and expected job losses of around 210,000 in October.

U.S. Sept. factory orders down sharply for second month

U.S. and foreign businesses sharply cut back their demand for capital equipment for the second straight month in September, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Factory orders fell 2.5% in September, much weaker than the 0.2% fall expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Factory orders had fallen 4.3% in August, the biggest drop in almost two years. Orders for durable goods increased a revised 0.9% in September, up slightly from 0.8% estimated a week ago. But this gain was swamped by a 5.5% drop in orders for nondurable goods. Core capital equipment orders fell 1.5% in September after falling 2.3% in August.

Highest initial jobless claims since September 2001 Continuing claims climb to level last seen in 1983, U.S. data show

October producer prices fall record 2.8%, gasoline plummets

U.S. producer prices fell a record 2.8% in October, the most since 1947, as gasoline prices plummeted a record 24.9%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Overall finished energy goods prices fell 12.8%, the most since 1986, while food prices declined 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, core producer prices rose 0.4% in October. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a decrease of 1.6% in overall PPI, and a 0.1% increase in the core rate. Producer prices are up 5.2% over the past 12 months. Further back in the production pipeline, prices for intermediate goods fells a record 3.9% in October, while prices for crude goods fell a record 18.6%.

by **RDR** on Tue Nov 18, 2008 10:26 am

Home builders distraught over economic crisis Sentiment index falls five points to record low 9 in November

FOMC sees yearlong recession, minutes show

Federal Reserve policymakers now expect the U.S. economy to contract for as much as a year, with the risk that the slowdown could persist for even longer, according to edited minutes of a closed-door meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Oct. 28 and 29. The minutes were released Wednesday. The Fed governors and Fed bank presidents "generally expected the economy to contract moderately in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, and agreed that the downside risks to growth had increased," the minutes said. Without using the word, the Fed is now forecasting a recession lasting a year or so.

Consumer prices fall record 1% on record energy drop

U.S. consumer prices declined a record 1% in October, seasonally adjusted, as energy prices fell a record 8.6%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Data on the overall CPI date back to 1947, and the energy data go back to 1957. Meanwhile, food prices in October rose 0.3%, the smallest gain since May. The core consumer price index - which excludes food and energy prices - fell 0.1%, the first time there's been a decline in the core rate since 1982. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the overall October CPI to fall 0.9%, and for the core to rise 0.1%.

U.S. weekly jobless claims shoot up to 542,000

Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 542,000 in the week ending Nov. 15, the highest since July 1992, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of initial claims climbed by 15,750 to 506,500, the highest since January 1983. Continuing jobless claims rose by 109,000 to 4.01 million in the week ending Nov. 8 and the four-week average of continuing claims rose by 71,250 to 3.86 million. The insured unemployment rate climbed to 3.0%.

U.S. Oct. existing home sales fall 3.1% to 4.98 mln units

Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos fell 3.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Resales have sunk 1.6% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to fall to 5.0 million. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 0.9% to 4.23 million, a 10.2 month supply at the current sales pace. The median sales prices fell 11.3% in the past year to $183,300. This is the lowest sales price since March 2004. Some of the areas hardest hit by the downturn are starting to see renewed activity, said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the NAR. Prices have fallen so far in these areas- primarily Florida and California, that buyers now sense bargains.

Fannie, Freddie to halt foreclosures over holidays

Senators reach compromise on emergency auto loans: report

October durable orders down 6.2%, transportation orders fall

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 6.2% in October, the largest decline in two years, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, as orders for transportation goods fell 11.1%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an overall decline of 2.5%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 4.4%. Orders for core capital equipment - the kind of investments businesses make to expand or update their productive capacity - fell 4% in October, after a 3.3% decline in September. October shipments fell 2.4% after a 0.2% dip in September. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 1.7% in October after a 0.9% decline in September. New orders for September were revised to a decline of 0.2%, compared with the prior estimate of a 0.9% gain.

U.S. Oct. new-home sales fall 5.3% to 433,000 pace

Sales of new homes fell an estimated 5.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000, the lowest level since 1991, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a result of 441,500. Sales fell 6% in the South, hitting the lowest level since 1992. Sales declined 18% in West, hitting the lowest level since 1982. Nationally, sales in October were down 40.1% compared with October 2007. The inventory of unsold homes fell a record 8% in October to 381,000. In the past year, inventories have fallen 25.7%, the biggest drop since the government began tracking the data in 1963. The median sales price was $218,000, down 7% in the past year.

Consumer spending drops 1% in October

Consumer spending fell 1% in October, the largest decline since September 2001, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The result matched analysts' expectations. Real consumer spending fell 0.5%. Personal income rose 0.3% in October after a 0.1% gain in September. Analysts were looking for a 0.1% income gain for October. Real disposable income rose 1% in October. As expected by analysts, the core personal consumption expenditure price index was unchanged in October. This index gained 0.2% in September, and is up 2.1% in the past year.

by **RDR** on Wed Dec 03, 2008 9:13 am

U.S. Nov. ISM services falls to all-time-low 37.3%

Nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy contracted at a record pace during November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 37.3% from 44.4% in October. The decline was broad-based with 17 out of 18 industries reported contraction The decline was larger than expected. Economists were looking the index to fall to 42.7%. The major sub-indexes also set record lows. The business activity index fell to 33.0% in November from 44.2% in the previous month. New orders fell to 35.4% from 41.5%. The employment index fell to 31.3% from 41.5%. Inflation pressures eased. The price index plunged to 36.6% from 53.4% in the previous month.

CORRECT: Private-sector jobs fall by 250,000, ADP says

The U.S. private sector shed 250,000 jobs in November, the biggest job loss in seven years, according to the ADP national employment index released Wednesday. The loss was in line with estimates of analysts surveyed by MarketWatch. Job losses rose to 158,000 in the goods-producing sector and to 92,000 in the services. The report comes two days before the government releases its report on the labor market for November, with analysts expecting the worst losses in more than 25 years. (This is an update to correct an historical comparison.)

U.S. recession began in December 2007, NBER says

The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday. The economy reached a peak in December and has been declining since, according to the business cycle dating committee of the NBER. The committee does not judge a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product; rather, it looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Employment peaked in December.

CORRECT: Manufacturing falling at fastest pace in 27 years

Manufacturing activity in the United States declined at the fastest pace in 27 years in November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 36.2% in November from 38.9% in October. It's the lowest since early 1982. Economists were expecting the ISM index to fall to 37%. Readings under 50% indicate most firms reported worsening conditions. The new orders index fell to 27.9%, the lowest since 1980. The prices paid index fell to 25.5%. (This is an update to correct an historical comparison.)

Payrolls plunge by stunning 533,000 in November Jobless rate rises to 15-year high of 6.7%, as recession deepens

Households pay down debts for first time

Stung by the loss of $2.81 trillion in their net wealth, U.S. households paid down their debts in the third quarter for the first time since at least 1952, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. As of Sept. 30, households' total outstanding debt shrank at an annual rate of 0.8% from $13.94 trillion to $13.91 trillion, the Fed said in its quarterly flow of funds report. It's the first decline in household debt ever recorded in the report. Households paid off more mortgage debt than they took on for the first time on record. Mortgage debt fell at a 2.4% annual rate to $10.54 trillion. Other consumer debts, such as credit cards and auto loans, increased at a 1.2% annual rate in the quarter to $2.6 trillion. Total U.S. domestic nonfinancial debt increased at a 7.2% annual rate, boosted by a postwar record 39.2% increase in debt taken on by the federal government.

Jobless claims jump to 573,000, a 26-year high Continuing claims spike by 338,000 to 4.43 million

The insured unemployment rate -- the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits -- increased by two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.3%, the highest in 16 years.

by **RDR** on Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:18 pm

Fed cuts rates to record low range of zero to 0.25% Senior Federal Reserve official outlines scope of new programs
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve pulled out all the stops in its campaign to save the U.S. economy Tuesday, slashing interest rates to just above zero and promising to try an array of new economic measures to stimulate spending.
The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee established a target range for the federal funds rate of zero to 0.25%, effectively cutting its key rate for overnight lending to banks by between 0.75% and 1%.
Rates would need to be kept low "for some time," the central bank said.

'The Fed will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth.'

— Federal Reserve

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said the funds rate has "hit rock bottom."
U.S. stocks leaped after the decision, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 359 points. Read Market Snapshot.
A senior Fed official told reporters that the Fed has switched tactics and will now focus on aiding credit.
The Fed has already targeted a few debt classes for assistance. The senior officials said that other classes, including below triple-AAA quality debt, may be purchased.
The official said the program was not quantitative easing as practiced by Japan in the 1990s.
While Japan simply wanted to increase the quantity of money, the Fed wants to focus on the asset side of the balance sheet.
The moves are just about as aggressive as the central bank could be on monetary policy.
The Fed gave clear signals that it has moved on to other measures beyond setting interest rates in its fight to keep the economy rolling.
Josh Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc., said the Fed is "petrified" about the economic outlook.
But the senior Fed official said that economists at the central bank generally are in agreement with Wall Street economists about the duration and depth of the recession.
After two quarters of very weak growth, the economy should start a slow recovery after mid-year, the official said.
The Fed statement said that inflation should continue to moderate in coming months.
The senior Fed official said that deflation, or a general price decline, was not a major risk at the moment, but that price data would be watched carefully.
"The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth," the central bank pledged in its policy statement.
Going into next year, the focus of the Fed's policy will be to support financial markets and stimulate the economy "through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Fed's balance sheet at a high level."
So the key will be the quantity of money in the system, not the price.
The Fed's balance sheet has risen to $2.25 trillion over the past two months from $850 billion and has made promises to spend about a $1 trillion more.
The Fed is using the money to ease strains in the market for the debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and mortgage-backed securities issued by these GSEs.
These purchases may be expanded, the Fed said.
"The FOMC is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities," the Fed said.
Some economists have questioned the necessity of buying longer-term Treasury securities, with the prices already low.
By February, the Fed is also going to begin buying credit card debt and student loans. This template could be expanded. Under this plan, the Treasury is assuming the risk of loss while the Fed is making the purchases.
Economists applauded this laser-beam approach.
Adding "$100 billion here and $100 there strategically injected into the right places" can have a big impact, said Steve Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Other markets are clearly on the Fed's radar screen.
"The Fed will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity," the statement said.
The senior official said that lower quality assets could be purchased.
The Fed's moves followed some of the worst economic data in decades reported in the past few days, including monthly consumer sales numbers that fell the most since 1932.
The vote to lower the fed funds rate was unanimous. End of Story

FOMC cuts rate 0.75 percentage point to 0.25%, use all tools

The Federal Open Market Committee Tuesday lowered its target for overnight interest rates by three quarters of one percent to a record low 0.25%. At the same time, the central bank released a statement that signaled an aggressive posture. It said it would keep rates low "for some time" and continue to expand its balance sheet to stabilize the economy. The vote to lower the Fed funds rate was unanimous. The move was expected as economic data over the last two months has show a sharp drop in activity.

U.S. consumer prices fall 1.7% vs. 1.4% drop expected

U.S. consumer prices fell 1.7% in November, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the CPI to drop by 1.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was flat in November. Year over year, the overall CPI has risen 1.1%, while the core has risen 2%.

U.S. Nov. housing starts plunge 18.9% to record low

U.S. home builders slashed construction of new homes in November, driving housing starts far below the worst levels seen in 50 years, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. New starts dropped an eye-popping 18.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 625,000, the lowest rate since the Commerce Department began keeping records in 1959. Starts were far lower than the 740,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Building permits fell 15.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000, also a record low. Permits for single-family homes fell 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 412,000, a 27-year low.

U.S. October factory orders down 5.1%

New orders for manufactured goods fell 5.1% in October, the biggest decline since 2000, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, as new orders for transportation equipment dropped. Action Economics analysts had expected overall new orders to fall 5%. New orders for durable goods fell a revised 6.9%, compared with 6.2% estimated last week. October's drop in overall orders is the third consecutive months of declines, following drops of 3.1% in September and 4.3% in August. Nondurable goods orders in October fell 3.4%. Core capital equipment orders fell 5%.

Initial jobless claims fall to one-month low But the less volatile four-week average hits 16-year high

Wal-Mart's total U.S. same-store sales rise 3.4% in November

European central banks slash rates BOE benchmark at post-war low; ECB swings ax

by **RDR** on Wed Dec 17, 2008 11:08 pm

Chrysler to idle all factories for at least a month

Chrysler said Wednesday that it will idle all of its manufacturing operations starting this Friday through at least January 19 in an effort to keep inventories more aligned with plunging U.S. demand for new cars and trucks. Due to customers' inability to obtain financing, Chrysler dealers said that their sales volumes have fallen as much as 25% from a year ago.

Initial jobless claims fall 21,000; trend at 26-year high

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 21,000 to 554,000 in the week ended Dec. 13, easing back part of a surge in the prior week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Still, the four-week average of those claims rose 2,750 to 543,750 - the highest level since December 1982, and initial claims are not expected to drop again until mid-January, according to the Labor Department. For the week ended Dec. 6, the number of Americans continuing to collect benefits fell 47,000 to 4.38 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 92,000 to 4.23 million -- the highest since January 1983. Compared with the same week a year ago, new jobless claims are up about 59%, while continuing claims are up 66%.

U.S. Nov PPI has second straight large decline

Inflation at the wholesale level decelerated sharply in November for the second straight month, the Labor Department said Friday. The producer price index fell 2.2%, driven by an 11.2% drop in energy prices. This follows a record 2.8% drop in October. Food prices were flat in November. The core PPI, excluding food and energy costs, also moderated in November. The core rate rose 0.1% in the month, down from a 0.4% gain in October and the smallest gain since March. Economists were expecting the PPI to fall 2.0% in November and the core rate was expected to remain flat.

Retail sales fall 1.8%, the 5th straight decline

With gasoline prices plunging and auto sales on life support, U.S. retail sales dropped 1.8% in November, the fifth straight decline, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Retail sales were down 7.4% compared with a year earlier. The big drop was in line with expectations by economists for a 2.1% decline. Sales fell a revised 2.9% in October and a revised 1.6% in September. But the extent of the decline was exaggerated by an historic drop in retail gasoline prices in November. Excluding the record 14.7% drop in sales at gas stations, retail sales fell 0.2%. Many retail sectors reported their biggest sales increases in years.

by **RDR** on Sat Dec 27, 2008 11:51 pm

Consumer spending drops 0.6% in November

Consumer spending fell 0.6% in November, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, amid mounting job losses and persistent economic uncertainty. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected a 0.7% decline. Real consumer spending rose 0.6%. Personal income fell 0.2% in November, after a 0.1% gain in October. Analysts were looking for no income gain in November. Real disposable income rose 1% in November, after a 0.7% gain in the prior month. As analysts had expected, the core personal consumption expenditure price index was unchanged in November. This index was also unchanged in October, and is up 1.9% in the past year.

November durable orders down 1%, transportation orders fall

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 1% in November, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, as orders for transportation goods fell 7.4%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an overall decline of 3%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.2%. Orders for core capital equipment - the kind of investments businesses make to expand or update their productive capacity - rose 4.7% in November, after a 6.6% decline in October. November shipments of durable goods fell 2.6% after a 3.4% decline in October. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 2.4% in November after a 2.7% decline in October. New orders for durable goods in October were revised to a decline of 8.4%, compared with a prior estimate of a 6.9% drop.

U.S. unemployment lines longest in 26 years Initial jobless benefit claims rise 30,000 to 586,000 in latest week

Typically, unemployment benefits run out after 26 weeks for those who are eligible. A federal law has extended unemployment benefits for an extra 13 weeks under the separate federal program, and President Bush recently signed into law legislation providing for a further extension of benefits.
...
In a separate report, the Commerce Department reported that inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose in November by 0.6%, the first increase since May. Consumer prices plunged 1.1%, helping to drive after-tax inflation-adjusted personal income up by 1%, despite huge job losses in the month.

Also, the Commerce Department said orders for new durable goods fell 1% in November after plunging 8.4% in October. Orders for core capital equipment goods rose 4.7%.

Mortgage applications mushroom on lower rates Refinancings pace upsurge; ARMs all but disappear

ECONOMIC REPORT Consumers gain purchasing power in November

U.S. consumer confidence hits record low on job, business worries

by **RDR** on Sun Jan 18, 2009 10:59 pm

Most recent to later information...
U.S. Dec. industrial production down 2%, down 11.5% in Q4

The output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities plunged 2.0% in December, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Output has fallen in four of the last five months. The figures were weaker than forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who were looking for output to fall 1.2%. Output in November was also much weaker than previously thought.

Consumer prices show smallest gain in 54 years CPI falls 0.7% in December, while core inflation flat as expected

With prices for urban workers down 0.9% in December and average weekly earnings down 0.3%, real weekly earnings -- those adjusted for inflation -- rose 0.6%. For all of 2008, real earnings were up 2.9%.
Falling prices have been a boon for consumers, but have devastated corporate profit margins, leading to even more layoffs and production cutbacks.
Most economists expect inflation to ease for much of this year as global demand weakens. Federal Reserve officials say they aren't especially concerned about deflation taking hold, and insist that they are ready to shrink the money supply once the economy begins to recover in order to prevent a bout of inflation next year.
"Our latest forecast shows the core slipping to 1% by the end of 2009, consistent with a growing output gap that is expected to reach 6%," wrote David Greenlaw and Ted Wieseman, economists for Morgan Stanley. "Even with energy prices having flattened out of late, the deflation risk confronting the U.S. economy is real."
In a separate report released Friday, the Federal Reserve said industrial output plunged 2% in December, much more than expected. See full story on industrial output.
In a separate report, the consumer sentiment index rose to 61.9 in January from 60.1 in December. See full story.

Initial weekly jobless claims rise

First-time applications for state unemployment benefits rose 54,000 to a seasonally adjusted 524,000 in the week ending Jan. 10, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims fell 8,000 to 518,500 - a level that is 55% higher than the average during the same period in the prior year. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ending Jan. 3 fell 115,000 to 4.5 million, a level that is 64% higher than the prior year. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 27,500 to 4.5 million - the highest level since December 1982. The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.4%.

Timing of global recovery 'highly uncertain:' Bernanke

Initial jobless claims fall, ongoing claims most since 1982

First-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 467,000 in the week ending Jan. 3, the Labor Department said Thursday. The drop in this week's data, as well in the prior week, may be due to some layoffs occurring earlier than government analysts had expected, according to the Labor Department, which added that claims could remain low for a couple of more weeks and then tick up. Despite the decline in the most recent weekly data, the level of initial claims is 42% higher than the same period in the prior year. The four-week average of new claims fell 27,000 to 525,750, and is up 53% from the prior year. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ending Dec. 27 rose 101,000 to 4.61 million - the highest level since November 1982. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 45,000 to 4.47 million - the highest level since December 1982. The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.4%.

[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={C53CF73A-8E55-4AE2-9C40-3996368AE712}&siteid=nbsh]More Than a Third of American Workers Are Anxious About Job Security Entering 2009 The "Obama Effect" on the Job Market is Still a Relative Unknown[/url]

CBO sees U.S. budget deficit of $1.2 trillion this year

The federal government will run a budget deficit of $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2009, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Wednesday in a stark assessment of the red ink facing the government. The total would be 8.3% of gross domestic product and increase if Congress enacts an economic stimulus package. CBO is also predicting real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2010 and an unemployment rate that will top 9% early that year.

ADP employment index shows 693,000 jobs lost in December

U.S. private-sector firms shed 693,000 jobs in December, far worse than expected, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. Employment in the services sector fell by 473,000, while employment in the goods-producing sectors fell by 220,000. The methodology for the ADP index has been revised with the aim of making it a better fit with the government figures to be released on Friday. Economists currently expect nonfarm payrolls to have fallen by 500,000 in December.

FOMC saw specter of depression, deflation

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee at their mid-December meeting saw mounting risks of depression and deflation as they grappled with employing new tools to stabilize an economy that was rapidly weakening, according to truncated minutes of the meeting released on Tuesday. Some participants at the meeting saw "the distinct possibility of a prolonged contraction, although that was not judged to be the most likely outcome," the minutes said. Inflationary pressures were likely to dissipate, and "some members saw significant risks that inflation could decline and persist for a time at uncomfortably low levels."

Pending home sales index down 4% in November

In a sign that further weakening may be in store for the U.S. housing market, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes fell 4% in November from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The index, which is considered a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down 5.3% from the prior year. Pending home sales in November fell in all four regions, with declines of 7.2% in the Northeast, 6.7% in the Midwest, 2.4% in the West and 2.2% in the South. The October pending home sales index was revised to a decline of 4.2% from a prior estimate of a 0.7% drop. NAR is calling for a real-estate focused stimulus plan from the government.

Factory shipments plunge record 5.3%

Pushed lower by weak demand and falling prices, shipments from U.S. factories plunged a record 5.3% in November, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Orders for U.S. factory-made goods fell 4.6% in the month, more than twice as much as the expected 2.2% decline. The figures are not adjusted for price changes. Orders and shipments of nondurable goods dropped a record 7.4% in November, led by a 22% drop in shipments from petroleum refineries. Oil and gasoline prices fell about 20% during the month. Orders for durable goods fell 1.5%, revised from the 1% drop reported two weeks ago.

Chrysler U.S. December sales drop 53%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/c ... iteid=bnbh

Ford U.S. December sales down 32.4% to 139,067 units
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/f ... iteid=bnbh

Oil rises 14%, but still ends the year with biggest loss

Crude-oil futures surged 14% Wednesday as traders staked out new positions ahead of the new year, but futures still ended the year with their biggest loss. Crude for February delivery rose $5.57 to end at $44.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Despite Wednesday's rally, oil ended the year down 54%, the biggest yearly loss since oil futures started trading in New York in 1983.

Initial jobless claims fall, continuing claims at 26-yr high

First-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell 94,000 to a seasonally adjusted 492,000 in the week ending Dec. 27, the Labor Department said Wednesday, citing seasonal factor volatility to explain the surprising drop. Despite the decline, the level of claims is 45% higher than the same period in the prior year. The four-week average of new claims fell 5,750 to 552,250. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ending Dec. 20 rose 140,000 to 4.51 million - the highest level since December 1982. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 103,750 to 4.42 million - also the highest level since December 1982. The government added that the insured unemployment rate rose to 3.4% -- the highest level since November 1983 -- from 3.3% in the prior week.

U.S. Nov. existing-home sales fall 8.6% Home prices decline at fastest annual pace on record

U.S. Q3 GDP down 0.5%, unrevised and as expected

U.S. real gross domestic product for the third quarter fell at a 0.5% annualized rate, unrevised from the previous estimate, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The report was in line with economists' expectations. A key measure of inflation was revised down slightly. Core prices increased 2.4% down from 2.6% reported earlier. Pre-tax corporate profits declined a revised 1.2% quarter-to-quarter, compared with a 1.0% drop previously estimated. Economists are very concerned about the near-term growth outlook. Forecasts for growth in the current quarter are declining daily and are now centered at a drop exceeding a 6% annual rate. The first quarter of next year is also expected to be very weak.

Foreclosures, delinquencies hit record high But number of mortgages entering foreclosure dips in third quarter

Business contacts downbeat in latest Fed report

Business contacts told the Federal Reserve that economic conditions weakened across all of the bank's 12 regions from mid-October through the end of November, according to a survey released by the central bank on Wednesday. The details of the survey generally match recent poor economic data. The Fed's contacts said both the service and manufacturing sectors were suffering. Farm activity was mixed, with a good harvest but concerns by farmers about future profits. Bank lending on all types of loans was down and lending standards were tighter, the survey found. Price pressures had eased given weak retail sales and lower input prices for raw materials. Signs of labor market slowing were reported in several Fed districts. One of the only sectors reporting booming demand was bankruptcy services.

Toyota U.S. November sales fall 33.9%
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/t ... iteid=bnbh

Ford U.S. Nov. auto sales fall 30.6% to 123,222 vehicles

U.S. consumer confidence rises on lower gas prices

Falling gas prices perked up consumers in November, according to the monthly Conference Board index, which reported Tuesday that confidence rose from a record low in October. The November consumer confidence index increased to 44.9 from an upwardly revised October reading of 38.8. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a November reading of 39. "Inflation expectations, which have been at historically high levels in recent months, subsided considerably as a result of falling gas prices," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. However, consumers' view of current conditions worsened in November, with those saying jobs are "hard to get" rising to 37.2% from 36.6% in the prior month.

U.S. Q3 GDP revised down to - 0.5%

The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.5% annual rate in the third quarter, slower than the negative 0.3% estimated a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The revisions to real gross domestic product were largely due to weaker consumer spending. Economists were predicting a revision to about negative 0.6%. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 2.6%, compared with the initial estimate of a 2.9% gain.

by **RDR** on Tue Jan 20, 2009 9:26 am

Fiat to get 35% stake in Chrysler for no cash

Falling prices push existing-home sales up 6.5% For full year, sales fall 13% while prices drop a record 9.3%

Home Depot to cut 7,000 jobs, exit Expo business
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/h ... iteid=bnbh

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/s ... iteid=bnbh
Sprint to eliminate 8,000 jobs

Caterpillar fourth-quarter profit falls 32% on higher costs

Housing starts plunge to another record low

by **RDR** on Fri Feb 06, 2009 9:03 am

Payrolls plunge by 598,000, the most since 1974 U.S. unemployment rate jumps to 7.6% on widespread job losses

U.S. jobless claims surge in latest week to 626,000

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits surged in the latest week to the highest level in over 26 years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending January 31 rose 35,000 to 626,000. It's the highest level since the week ended Oct. 30, 1982. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to be relatively steady around 580,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 6,000 to 591,000 compared with the initial estimate of a rise of 3,000 to 588,000. The four-week average of initial claims rose 39,000 to 582,250. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits rose 20,000 to a record 4.79 million in the week ending January 24. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 44,000 to 4.67 million.

U.S. January ISM services index rises to 42.9%

U.S. nonmanufacturing sectors continued to contract but at a slower pace in January, according to a Wednesday report from the Institute for Supply Management, with the global slowdown taking its toll on demand. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 42.9% in January from 40.1% in December. In November, the index reached a record low of 37.4%. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a January result of 39%. Readings below 50% indicate that more firms are contracting than expanding.

ADP employment index finds 522,000 private-sector jobs lost

The U.S. private sector shed 522,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP employment index, pointing to another hefty month of job losses when the government reports its payroll figures on Friday. The ADP index, compiled from anonymous payroll data, showed the goods-producing industries lost 243,000 jobs, while the service-producing industries lost 279,000 jobs. The ADP index covers only private-sector jobs, adding in some 10,000 government jobs created in a typical month, the report suggests nonfarm payrolls fell by about 510,000 in January. Economists now expect payrolls to fall by 525,000, the fifth straight month of at least 400,000 jobs lost.

[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/congress-approves-787-billion-stimulus/story.aspx?guid={3977FA6E-7480-4E1B-8D88-ADE7BB6CFFD7}&siteid=bnbh]Congress approves $787 billion economic stimulus bill[/url]

Senators voted to approve a $787 billion economic stimulus package on Friday, following an earlier vote in the House and clearing the way for President Barack Obama to sign the stimulus bill into law. The bill is a mixture of tax cuts, government spending, aid to states, and relief to the unemployed that Obama says will create 3.5 million jobs. The Senate vote was 60 to 38; three Republicans voted for it.

by **RDR** on Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:38 am

[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/obamas-anti-foreclosure-program-features-75/story.aspx?guid={FC471D1A-4A21-4A01-91FA-72F9C2020978}&siteid=bnbh]Obama Releases Foreclosure Mitigation Plan[/url]

The Obama Administration on Wednesday released details of a $50 billion program that they believe will help up to 5 million "at risk" homeowners modify their mortgages. This program is seeking to help homeowners who took out loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to refinance through the two institutions. It also allows certain families to refinance at lower interest rates. The program also is launching a $75 billion homeowner stability initiative that the Obama Administration believes could help 3 million to 4 million homeowners.

Seems a few confusing numbers thrown around {50 or 75 billion} or is that two programs. Are they multiplying?

[url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-easing-wont-stoke-inflation/story.aspx?guid={1FE26DDE-9124-440C-A9E1-7FD2524D082F}&siteid=bnbh]Fed not stoking inflation, Bernanke says[/url]

The "extraordinary measures" taken by the Federal Reserve to restore the flow of credit vital to the economy won't stoke inflation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday. In a rare appearance before journalists at the National Press Club, Bernanke said the Fed will be able to quickly reverse much of what it's done to expand credit, once the economy improves. Bernanke emphasized that restoring the economy to vigor is the Fed's one and only job now, and that concerns about inflation must wait. For now, deflation is a greater concern. "Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures," he said.

I agree that the Fed can turn on a dime and with commodity prices low and UE fairly high, then not likely to be sectoral inflation at least for the near future.

GM shares hit 71-year low, market cap drops below $1 billion

by **RDR** on Tue Feb 24, 2009 1:56 pm

U.S. weekly jobless claims unchanged at 627,000

First time claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at 627,000 for the week ending Feb. 14, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The four-week average of initial claims, which measures the underlying trend, rose by 10,500 to 619,000. Continuing claims rose by 170,000 to 4.98 million in the week ending Feb. 7, a 27-year high. The four-week average of continuing claims climbed by 92,500, to 4.83 million, also a 27-year high.

Bank stability key ingredient to U.S. recovery: Bernanke

Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said that restoring financial stability is the top job facing policy makers. If actions taken by the Obama administration and the Fed are successful in restoring some measure of bank stability, "there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery," Bernanke said in testimony to the Senate Banking panel on monetary policy. If financial conditions improve, the stimulus package and ultra-low interest rates will support growth and low gasoline prices will support consumer spending. Bernanke said the new outline of a program to assist banks announced by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner should work "over time" to restore the flow of credit needed to promote growth.

Existing-home sales drop 5.3% to 12-year low Prices down 14.8% in past year as foreclosures flood the market

GM may need up to $30 bln in additional federal funding
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/g ... iteid=bnbh

Tuesday it could need up to $30 billion in emergency federal loans by 2011 in a worst-case scanario. The plan, which hinges on further concessions from its union workers and bondholders, aims to begin repaying the loans by 2012 and fully paying them off by 2017. The company said it also plans to tap funding from other governments, including Canada, Germany, Britain and Sweden. The plan also calls for further cuts in production to match a weaker sales outlook, and includes phasing out the Saturn product line. The automaker also aims to reduce its global workforce by 47,000 over the year and will shut five additional facilities than it had outlined in December

CORRECT: Chrysler asks for $2 billion more in loans
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/c ... iteid=bnbh

Chrysler LLC on Tuesday submitted an update on its viability plan to the U.S. Treasury, asking for an additional $2 billion in loans and cutting its industry sales target for 2009 to 10.1 million cars and trucks. The new request is in addition to the remaining $3 billion in loans agreed upon last year. Chrysler has already received $4 billion in federal loans. In addition to the measures already taken, Chrysler said it plans to cut fixed costs by $700 million in 2009, while reducing one manufacturing shift, slashing 3,000 jobs and discontinuing three vehicles. Chrysler also said it has reached an agreement for concessions from the United Auto Workers and expects to reach a deal with bondholders. (Corrects Chrysler's target of 10.1 million cars and trucks in 2009).

Retail sales rise 1% for first increase in seven months Most sectors see healthy gain, stand in contrast to private-sector reports

Economy shrinks at faster-than-expected 6.2 percent pace in fourth quarter, worst in 26 years

American consumers — spooked by vanishing jobs, sinking home values and shrinking investment portfolios have cut back. In turn, companies are slashing production and payrolls. Rising foreclosures are aggravating the already stricken housing market, hard-to-get credit has stymied business investment and is crimping the ability of some consumers to make big-ticket purchases.

It's creating a self-perpetuating vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are finding hard to break.
...
For all of 2008, the economy grew by just 1.1 percent, weaker than the government initially estimated. That was down from a 2 percent gain in 2007 and marked the slowest growth since the last recession in 2001.

With Friday's figures, Mayland lowered his forecast for this year to show a deeper contraction of just over 2 percent.

In the fourth quarter, consumers cut spending at a 4.3 percent pace. That was deeper than the initial 3.5 percent annualized drop and marked the biggest decline since the second quarter of 1980.

Businesses slashed spending on equipment and software at an annualized pace of 28.8 percent in the final quarter of last year. That also was deeper than first reported and was the worst showing since the first quarter of 1958.

UMich consumer sentiment falls in February: report

GDP revised to 6.2% rate of decline in fourth quarter Worst quarter since 1982 as spending, investment and exports drop sharply

New home sales plunge 10.2% to record low

Despite a record drop in prices, sales of new homes fell 10.2% in January to a record-low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Sales were down 48.2% compared with a year earlier, the government reported. Builders cut their median sales prices by a record 9.9% in January compared with December in a bid to move unsold homes. Median sales prices are down 13.5% in the past year. Inventories of unsold homes fell by 3.1% to 342,000, the 13th consecutive decline. The inventory at the end of January represented a record-high 13.3 month supply at the January sales pace.

Buffett: Sees economy in 'shambles' in '09

Commenting on the federal government's actions to resolve the economic crisis, Buffett said: "Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects."

Initial jobless claims rise; ongoing claims at record high

Signaling persistent labor market weakness, first-time applications for state unemployment benefits for the week ending Feb. 21 rose 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 667,000. The level of initial claims is the highest since October 1982 and up 86% from the same period in the prior year. The four-week average of new claims, which measures the underlying trend, rose 19,000 to 639,000 - also the highest level since October 1982, and up 84% from the prior year. For the week ending Feb. 14, the number of people collecting benefits reached a record high, rising 114,000 to 5.11 million - a level that is 86% higher than in the prior year. The four-week average of continuing claims was also a record, gaining 89,250 to 4.93 million - a level that is 80% higher than in the prior year. The insured unemployment rate reached the highest level since July 1983, rising to 3.8% from 3.7%. The data go back to 1967.

Trade deficit narrows to six-year low in December U.S. goods exports sinking at fastest pace on record

by **RDR** on Tue Mar 03, 2009 9:20 am

U.S. Jan. pending home sales down 7.7%, realtors say

UMich consumer sentiment rises in January: report

Consumer sentiment rose in January to a final reading of 61.2 from 60.1 in late December, according to a media report of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a January result of 61.5. While sentiment remains at relatively low levels, lower prices have provided some relief, even as worry persists over income and ongoing job losses.

Savings rate rises to 14-year high in January Disposable incomes boosted by several once-a-year factors

ADP index shows private-sector jobs fell by 697,000 in Feb.

U.S. private-sector firms cut 697,000 jobs in February, according to the ADP employment index, which is based on millions of company payroll records. The ADP index released Wednesday showed the goods-producing sector shed 338,000 jobs, the 26th consecutive decline. The services sector lost 359,000 jobs. The index does not include government jobs. Adding in the typical 12,000 jobs gained in the public sector, the ADP report points to nonfarm payrolls falling by 685,000, compared with the MarketWatch consensus of 640,000.

Honda third-quarter profit falls 90% to $222 million
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/h ... iteid=bnbh

U.S. Dec. new home sales down 14.7% to lowest level ever

U.S. new home sales fell 14.7% in December to the lowest level on record,, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331,000 was far below the 390,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in November were revised to a 388,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 407,000. There were 482,000 new homes sold in 2008, down a record 37.9% from 776,000 sold in 2007. This is the lowest since 1982. The months' supply of homes on the market rose to 12.9 months in December from 12.5 months in November. Median sales prices have fallen 9.3% in the past year to $206,500

U.S. Dec. durable goods orders down 2.6%

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods sank in December, falling 2.6% on weaker demand for a wide range of products, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding the 0.6% gain in transportation goods, orders fell 3.6%. The decrease exceeded the expected 2.0% fall forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It was the fifth straight decline in new orders. The report was weak across the board. One of the only bright spots was a jump in commercial aircraft. Shipments fell 0.7% in December, and were down 1.4% excluding transportation goods. Inventories rose 0.4.

Record number standing in unemployment lines Initial jobless claims rise 3,000 to 588,000; continuing claims hit 4.78 million

Consumer confidence at record low 'Glimmer of hope' seen as job views show some improvement

Carnage continues: 524,000 jobs lost in December Unemployment rate rises to 7.2%, the highest level in 16 years

Home prices off record 18% in past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 2.2% in October from the prior month, and had fallen a record 18% from the previous year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices have fallen in all 20 cities compared with last month and a year ago, and 14 of the 20 metro areas showed record rates of annual declines. For the original 10-city index, prices fell a record 19.1% in the previous 12 months.

by **RDR** on Sat Mar 07, 2009 2:02 pm

Payrolls sink 651,000; jobless rate soars to 8.1% 2.5 million jobs lost in last four months

U.S. Dec. pending home sales up 6.3%, realtors say

The number of new sales contracts on existing homes jumped a seasonally adjusted 6.3% in December as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and falling prices, a real estate trade group said Tuesday.The pending home sales index rose 6.3% in December and is now up 2.1% compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said. The increase points to a healthy gain in existing-home sales in January and February. The index is based on signed sales contracts, which usually occur a month or two before the sale is closed, when sales are reported in the NAR's existing-home sales report.

Jobless claims slip back to 639,000 Smoothed trend for continuing claims marches higher

Downward economic spiral continues, Fed Beige Book finds

Downward pressure on the economy continued through the last week of February, according to the latest anecdotal report on the economy released on Wednesday. The tentacles of the recession continued to grab other sectors of the economy - with farmers feeling the pinch from reduced global demand. Only the food and drug sectors seem recession-proof, the survey found. Real estate remained in the doldrums, the Fed said. Bank lending declined on net. There was lower demand for consumer and business loans. Credit was tight as lenders were imposing strict standards on loans. Commercial real estate loans were receiving "particular scrutiny" the report said.

Consumer prices flat over past year

With energy prices tumbling 20%, U.S. consumer prices were unchanged over the past 12 months, the lowest 12-month inflation rate since 1955, the Labor Department reported Friday. In January, the consumer price index rose 0.3% seasonally adjusted as expected, the government said, as energy prices rose 1.7%, the first increase since July. The core CPI - which strips out food and energy prices to get a better handle on underlying inflation trends - rose 0.2% seasonally adjusted in January compared with the 0.1% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.Over the past 12 months, the core CPI is up 1.7%, the lowest inflation since mid-2004.

UMich consumer sentiment rises in early March: report

A consumer sentiment index ticked up in early March to 56.6 from 56.3 in February, but remains at relatively low levels amid mounting job losses, according to a media report of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. Analysts polled by MarketWatch were looking for a March reading of 55. With sentiment remaining near historically low levels, it's clear that the widespread economic weakness is weighing down consumers despite Washington's massive stimulus plan to create jobs.

U.S. trade gap declines to six-year low $36.0 bln in Jan.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 9.7% in January to $36.0 billion, the lowest monthly gap since October 2002, the Commerce Department said Friday. The trade deficit was below the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $38.0 billion. This is the sixth consecutive decline in the trade balance, the first since the new data series was started in 1992. Both imports and exports declined in January. The petroleum deficit shrank to $14.7 billion in January, the lowest since September 2004. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $20.57 billion in compared with $20.31 billion in the same month last year.

by **RDR** on Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:49 am

Housing sentiment index stuck at 9 in March

U.S. Feb. industrial production down 1.4%

The output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities plunged 1.4% in February, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Output has fallen in four straight months and five out of the last six months. The February decline was worse than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Analysts had been expecting a 0.9% drop. Output in January was also slightly weaker than previously estimated. Output fell a revised 1.9% in January, compared with the initial estimate of a 1.8% drop. Capacity utilization - a gauge of slack in the econony -- fell to 70.9%. This matches a record low for the series which dates back to the late 1960s. For factories alone, capacity in use fell to a new record post-war low of 67.4.0%.

U.S. consumer prices rise 0.4% on higher gas prices

With energy prices rising at the fastest rate in seven months, U.S. consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in February, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Energy prices increased 3.3% in February, the government said, including an 8.3% gain in gasoline prices. Food prices fell 0.1%, the first decline in nearly three years. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI increased 0.2% for the second month in a row, boosted by higher prices for new cars, clothes and cigarettes. The February inflation and core inflation figures were a tenth of a percentage point higher than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Housing starts surge 22% in Feb. on apartment building

Boosted by an 82% increase in construction of apartment buildings, U.S. housing starts surged 22% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. It was the first increase in eight months. Construction of new housing units had plunged 38% in the previous three months before February's unexpected jump. Economists had forecast a further drop to 456,000, despite an expected surge in multifamily construction. Building permits, which are less volatile than the starts data, rose 3% in February to a 547,000 annual rate. Permits for single-family units rose 11% to a 373,000 rate, the largest percentage gain in 18 years.

Feb. leading indicators fall; weakness to persist

Continuing jobless claims jump by 185,000 to record 5.47 mln

The number of people collecting state unemployment benefits jumped by 185,000 to a record seasonally adjusted 5.47 million in the week ending March 7, while new claims dipped by 12,000 to 646,000 in the week ending March 14, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of new claims rose by 3,750 to 654,750, the highest level in 26 years. The insured unemployment rate - the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits - rose by two-tenths of a percentage to 4.1%, the highest in nearly 26 years.

by **RDR** on Tue Mar 24, 2009 9:29 am

Home prices rise for first time in a year, FHFA says Home values down 6.3% in past year, federal housing agency says

Existing-home sales rise on 'deep' discounting Sales up 5.1% in February while prices drop 15.5% in past year, NAR says

5.1 million jobs lost in this recession so far Payrolls fall 663,000 in March while unemployment rate jumps to 8.5%

Factory orders increase first time in 7 months Capital equipment orders jump 7.1% in February

Initial jobless claims rise to highest level since 1982

Private-sector cut 742,000 jobs in March, ADP says

The U.S. labor market worsened again in March, as private-sector firms cut 742,000 jobs in March, signaling another terrible employment report on Friday, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports its estimate for nonfarm payrolls. The goods-producing sector shed 327,000jobs, the 27th consecutive decline. Manufacturing lost 206,000, while construction lost 118,000. The services sector lost 415,000 jobs. The ADP index does not include government jobs. Adding in the typical 12,000 jobs gained in the public sector, the ADP report points to nonfarm payrolls falling by 730,000, compared with the MarketWatch consensus of 663,000.

U.S. 4Q GDP revised down to 6.3% decline

The U.S. economy experienced its most violent contraction in a generation during the fourth quarter, with real gross domestic product plunging at a 6.3% annualized seasonally adjusted rate, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in its third estimate of quarterly growth. The slump in the economy was broad based, with declines in every major sector except the federal government. Corporate profits fell at the fastest pace since 1953. Final sales to domestic purchasers - domestic demand - fell at a 5.8% annual rate, the biggest drop since 1980. The big revision came from inventories, where a small increase in stockpiles that was originally reported turned into a small decline in the final revision.

New-home sales rebound after record low in January February gain in sales first since last July

Demand for durable goods jumps 3.4% in February First gain after six monthly declines surprises economists

by **RDR** on Fri Apr 10, 2009 6:18 pm

Budget deficit triples to $957 billion for year March deficit hits $192 billion has receipts drop 28%, outlays rise 41%

U.S. housing starts dive 10.8% in March to 510,000 pace

Building permits fell to a record-low level and construction on new homes dropped sharply again in March after a big gain in February had raised hopes of a recovery, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Housing starts fell 10.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 510,000 from 572,000 in February. It's the second-lowest rate since the 1940s. It was much weaker than the 550,000 annual rate expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Meanwhile, building permits dropped 9% to a 513,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, the lowest on record. Permits for single-family homes fell 7.4% to a 361,000 annual rate, the second-lowest on record.

Economy still worsening across U.S.: Beige Book Pace of decline has slowed in some regions, Fed banks report

U.S. March consumer prices fall 0.1% on lower energy prices

March leading indicators fall; recession seen through summer

March leading indicators fall; recession seen through summer

Economy still worsening across U.S.: Beige Book Pace of decline has slowed in some regions, Fed banks report

Retail sales fall 0.4% in April Sales down 10.1% in the past year as recession squeezes harder

by **RDR** on Fri May 15, 2009 10:06 am

Factory sector down, but best since September: ISM

The factory sector contracted again in April, but the pace of decline slowed, according to the Institute for Supply Management index released Friday. The ISM index rose to 40.1% from 36.3% in March. It's the highest since September, showing that the pace of contraction is slowing. It was better than the 39.1% expected by economists. Readings under 50 indicate most firms surveyed by ISM said business was getting worse. The ISM has been below 50 for 15 straight months. The new orders index rose to 47.2% from 41.2% in March. The production index rose to 40.4% from 36.4% in March. The employment index 34.4% from 28.1% in March.

U.S. consumer spending falls 0.2% in March

Consumer spending and incomes took a step back in March after two steps forward in January, a sign that the improvement in the consumer sector in the first quarter was fragile and tentative. Real consumer spending fell 0.2% in March after gaining 0.9% in January and 0.1% in February, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Meanwhile, nominal incomes fell 0.3% in March as wages and salaries slid 0.5%. Americans pocketed the modest tax break they got in March as part of the economic stimulus package, boosting their savings rate to 4.2% of after-tax income in March from 4% in February.

FOMC only changes economic outlook in statement

The Federal Reserve, as expected, did not make any "shock and awe" announcements following its two-day meeting Wednesday. The central bankers said that the economic outlook had improved over the last six weeks, but the economy was likely to remain weak for a time. The FOMC said that spending has stabilized and that the pace of the downturn appears to be somewhat slower. Fed officials made no changes to their plans to buy Treasurys and other securities to support the flow of credit to the economy. The vote was unanimous. Economists had expected the Fed to maintain the status quo because of the signs of improvement in the domestic economy.

GDP falls 6.1% on record drop in investment

The U.S. economy contracted violently again in the first quarter of the year as business investment declined at a record rate, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, nearly matching the 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 60 years. The big story for the first quarter was in the business sector, where firms halted new investments, and shed workers and inventories at a dizzying pace to bring down production and stockpiles to match the lower demand from U.S. and foreign markets.

Initial jobless claims rise; continuing claims hit

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose a seasonally adjusted 27,000 to 640,000 in the week ended April 18, the Labor Department reported Thursday. After initial claims fell a revised 47,000 in the prior week, the most recent gain may dim hopes among some observers for a sustained trend of sharply falling claims. Still, the four-week average of initial claims fell 4,250 to 646,750 in the most recent weekly data. For the week ended April 11, the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits reached yet another new record, gaining 93,000 to hit 6.14 million - more than double the level in the prior year. These continuing claims have reached new weekly records since late January, signaling that workers are having a tough time finding jobs. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 142,500 to a record 5.94 million. The insured unemployment rate - the proportion of covered workers who are receiving benefits - rose to 4.6% from 4.5%, reaching the highest level since January 1983.

U.S. April CPI flat as tobacco prices jump

Housing starts, permits hit record lows in April Single-family sector stabilizes, multifamily goes in the tank

Home builders more hopeful that sales will return Sentiment index rises to 16 in May, an eight-month high

by **RDR** on Tue May 26, 2009 8:02 am

Consumer confidence surges on brighter jobs view

A reading on U.S. consumer confidence surged to 54.9 in May from an upwardly revised 40.8 in April as expectations for jobs improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The gain is the fourth-largest in the 32-year history of the survey, and the index is at its highest level in eight months. Economists were expecting the index to hit 43. "Expectations are that business conditions, the labor market and incomes will improve in the coming months," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "While confidence is still weak by historical standards, as far as consumers are concerned, the worst is now behind us." There was also a confidence surge in April.

April leading indicators rise; recession to ease

The recession will be less intense in the near term, and there could even be small growth in the second half of the year, the Conference Board said Thursday. The index of leading economic indicators rose 1% in April - the first increase in seven months -- following a revised dip of 0.2% in March. "The question is how long before declines in activity give way to small increases. If the indicators continue on the current track, that point might be reached in the second half of the year," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board. Of the 10 indicators that comprise the index, seven rose in April, with the largest positive contribution from stock prices. The largest negative contribution came from the real money supply.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall by 12,000

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 631,000 in the week ending May 16, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of initial claims fell by 3,500 to 628,500, data show. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims hit a record high, climbing by 75,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.66 million the week ending May 9. The four-week average of those claims also hit a record, of 6.48 million.

Fed:Losses based on scenario could be $600 billion

Long anticipated, controversial stress tests for the health of 19 financial institutions Thursday showed that the banking sector is secure, however based on a pessimistic forecast considered by bank regulators, losses for 2009 and 2010 could be $600 billion. According to the report, ten institutions are ordered to raise $74.6 billion in private capital over the next seven months. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated that bank credit losses will continue across asset classes. "Banks will need strong capital to weather these losses while making loans," Geithner said.

Payrolls drop by 539,000; jobless rate up to 8.9%

The U.S. economy continued to shred jobs at a horrendous pace in April, with nonfarm payrolls falling by 539,000 and the unemployment rate jumping to a 26-year high of 8.9%. The report was largely as expected, reflecting an easing in the pace of massive job destruction from the previous five months. Since the recession began in December 2007, payrolls have fallen by 5.7 million, or 4.1% of payrolls, the largest percentage decline since the 1958 recession. April's loss of 539,000 jobs was the smallest decline since October's 380,000. Job losses in February and March were revised higher by 66,000. Job losses were widespread across industries in April.

Initial jobless claims fall; record ongoing claims

U.S. April durable-goods orders up 1.9%

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods jumped in April, rising 1.9% on stronger demand for vehicles, steel and communications equipment, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding the 5.4% increase in transportation goods, orders rose 0.8%. The increase far exceeded the expected 0.6% rise forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The gain was tempered somewhat by a large revision to March. Orders in March fell a revised 2.1%, more than double the prior estimate of a 0.8% decline.

Private sector cuts 532,000 jobs in May: ADP

Many factors behind bond yield rise, Bernanke

Many factors, including concerns about large federal deficits, are behind the rise in yields on longer-term Treasury securities, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday. Other factors pushing yields higher are greater optimism about economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows and technical factors related to hedging of mortgage holdings, Bernanke said in testimony prepared for delivery to the House Budget Committee. Bernanke gave no hint of whether the Fed would take action to counter the move towards higher rates, which some economists fear could choke off any recovery. Some Fed watchers expect the Fed to increase its planned purchases of Treasurys.

Intense job destruction moderates in May Unemployment rate jumps to 9.4%, the highest in 26 years

by **RDR** on Wed Jun 10, 2009 8:38 am

GDP revised to 5.7% decline in first quarter As they cut jobs, investments and inventories, businesses increased profits

And with a 0.5% drop in the third quarter of 2008, it's the first time the economy has contracted for three consecutive quarters since 1975.

In the past four quarters, the economy has fallen 2.5%, the biggest year-over-year decline since 1982.

Consumer sentiment rises to 68.7 in May

79% of Americans Feel Secure in Their Jobs Despite Rises in Joblessness --New Bankrate study illustrates the dynamic of employee and employer in a tumultuous economy

"The study underscores the strong work ethic and the optimistic spirit of many Americans," said Julie Bandy, editor in chief at Bankrate.com. "When it comes down to it, people just want to work and earn an honest living."

U.S. trade gap widens slightly in April

The U.S. trade deficit widened by 2.2% in April to $29.2 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The deficit was in line with the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists. Exports fell faster than imports in January. Exports are now at their lowest level since July 2006 while imports have sunk to their lowest level since September 2004. Through the first four months of this year, the trade deficit was $120.4 billion, down significantly from $244.8 billion over the same period last year. The U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed to $16.75 billion in compared with $20.30 billion in the same month last year.

Treasury yields touch 8-month high after 10-year note auction

by **RDR** on Wed Jun 24, 2009 9:26 am

U.S. May existing-home sales up 2.4%

U.S. continuing jobless claims fall by 148,000

Continuing jobless claims fell by 148,000 to 6.68 million during the week ending June 6, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the lowest since May 9. Initial claims, meanwhile, rose by 3,000 to 608,000. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 2,250 to 6.75 million. The insured unemployment rate -- the proportion of insured workers who are collecting benefits -- fell to 5.0%, down 0.1 percentage point.

Recession losing steam, Conference Board says

The U.S. recession is "losing steam" and a slow recovery should begin by the end of the year, the Conference Board said Thursday as it announced that the index of leading economic indicators rose 1.2% in May, the second straight increase. The increase was in line with the MarketWatch consensus forecast of 1.1% increase. Seven of the 10 indicators improved in May, the private research organization said. The leading index is up 1.2% in the past six months, the first increase since April 2007. The coincident index fell 0.2% in May, "but the declines are less intense," said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the organization.

Treasury: Fed to set higher bank captial standards

The Obama administration on Wednesday will propose the establishment of the Federal Reserve as a consolidated supervisor of large systemically significant financial institutions that will require higher capital standards and more scrutiny of their activities because of the risk to the system of their collapse, according to a senior administration official on Tuesday. The proposal will also call for the elimination of the Office of Thrift Supervision, subsuming it into a new "National Bank Supervisor," agency based on the Office of Comptroller of the Currency agency. It also seeks to set up a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which will approve or reject mortgage products and set up new disclosure rules for home loan lending, he added.

Consumer prices inch 0.1% higher in May U.S. inflation falls 1.3% in past year, biggest drop in 59 years

Home builders' index falls back to 15 in June

Household wealth drops for 7th straight quarter Private-sector debt declines for the first time on record

Consumer sentiment rises to 70.8 in June

U.S. consumer sentiment rose in June, but remained at relatively low levels, according to media reports of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. The consumer sentiment index rose to 70.8 from 68.7 in May. In mid-June the estimate was 69. Economists were looking for a final June result of 69. The index hit a 28-year low of 55.3 in November, and has averaged 88.2 over the last 10 years. Recent readings show that the weak labor market continues to dampen consumer sentiment.

Jobless claims highest since mid-May

U.S. home prices down 18.1% in past year

Consumer confidence falls on gloomier jobs view

Incomes surge on one-time stimulus payments

U.S. personal incomes jumped 1.4% in May due to one-time $250 payments to Social Security beneficiaries as part of the stimulus program, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Consumer spending rose 0.3% in nominal terms. The results were in line with the consensus of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. With the boost to incomes, the savings rate rose to 6.9%. Excluding the one-time payments, disposable incomes rose 0.2%, the government said. Wages and salaries fell 0.1%. Real consumer spending (adjusted for inflation) rose 0.2%.

by **RDR** on Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:42 pm

FOMC more upbeat on growth, deflation is no longer a big threat

U.S. May factory orders rise 1.2%

Orders for U.S.-made factory goods climbed 1.2% in May on a big jump in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The overall orders number was the highest since June 2008. Excluding transportation equipment, new factory orders were up just 0.8% in May. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting factory orders to rise by 1.3% in May.

U.S. payrolls down 467,000 in June, rate at 9.5%

Services index improves a bit in June ISM index rises to 47.0%, still contracting but the highest since September

Nieves said the index should rise above the 50% threshold by the fall.

U.S. industrial production slumps 1.1% in May Capacity utilization in factories plunges to record-low 65%, Fed's data show

U.S. May housing starts jump 17.2% to 532,000 rate

The surprising increase was led by a 62% gain in new construction of multifamily dwellings.

Producer prices rise 0.2% in May on energy prices

Producer prices rose 0.2% in May, after seasonal adjustments, with higher energy prices offsetting a drop in food prices, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, fell 0.1%. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the overall producer price index to rise 0.5% and for the core to gain 0.1%. In the past year the producer price index has dropped 5%, the biggest year-over-year decline since August 1949, the government said. However, the core producer price index has gained 3% over the past year. In April, the producer price index rose 0.3%, while the core rose 0.1%.

U.S. housing starts up 2nd straight month in June

Initial jobless claims lowest since January

U.S. trade gap narrows unexpectedly in May

U.S. June new-home sales rise 11% to 384,000
Sales of new homes in the United States rose by the biggest amount since November 2008 in June, climbing by 11% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, the Commerce Department reported Monday. The report was stronger than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were predicting a modest increase in new-home sales, to 355,000, annualized. Sales are down 21.3% in the past year.

by **RDR** on Tue Jul 28, 2009 11:55 am

Consumer confidence falls for second month in row

The consumer confidence index fell in July, marking the second straight monthly decline, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The index now stands at 46.6, down from 49.3 in June, and was below expectations of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Both the present situation index and the expectations index declined in July.

Home prices up, first in 34 months, Case Shiller

U.S. home prices rose on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2006, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities rose 0.5% in May, with gains in 13 cities. "This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor's, which compiles the Case-Shiller index. Sales slipped 0.9% in April. On a year-to-year basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 17.1%. This is a slower pace of decline than the 18.1% drop in April.

U.S. June durable goods orders down 2.5%

Oil futures accelerate losses after supplies data

Recession less severe in early summer, Beige Book

The U.S. economic recession seems to becoming less severe as the summer progresses, according to the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report released Wednesday. While still weak, some regions reported that the pace of the downturn had moderated. Other regions said that activity had begun to stabilize. The Beige Book is designed to give Fed officials a "feel" for conditions on the ground. The report said retail sales remained sluggish, contacts in the factory sector saw a turnaround on the horizon and bank lending was flat or weakening. Perhaps the most significant development is that businesses across the country are finding creative ways to cut wages and benefits. Economists note that as long as wages are under pressure, the threat of deflation remains. Labor market conditions remain slack, the report said.

1.5 million homes in foreclosure in '09 Homeowners fell behind on mortgage payments in record numbers during the first six months of 2009. The future doesn't look much better.

Q2 GDP falls 1.0%, shallower than past 6 months

The U.S. economy contracted at a much smaller rate than in the past six months, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 1.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, compared with an average 5.9% drop over the past two quarters. However, this is the fourth straight quarter with a contraction in GDP. This has never happened before since records began in 1947. The big story for the second quarter was in the much smaller decrease in business investment, exports and inventories. There was also an upturn in federal and state government spending. The government also released comprehensive benchmark revisions to GDP data, but they did little to change the basic story of the economy.

U.S. July ISM factory index rises to 48.9%

Conditions for the nation's manufacturers continued to get better in July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index rose to 48.9% in July from 44.8% in June. The July index is the strongest since September. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 46.2%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. Below the headline, the report was strong. The data is showing that the manufacturing downturn is coming to an end. Both production and new orders rose above 50%. The ISM index has been improving slowly since hitting a low of 32.9% in December. The index was last above 50% in January 2008.

U.S. weekly jobless claims up 25,000 to 584,000

Q2 GDP falls 1.0%, shallower than past 6 months

The U.S. economy contracted at a much smaller rate than in the past six months, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 1.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, compared with an average 5.9% drop over the past two quarters. However, this is the fourth straight quarter with a contraction in GDP. This has never happened before since records began in 1947. The big story for the second quarter was in the much smaller decrease in business investment, exports and inventories. There was also an upturn in federal and state government spending. The government also released comprehensive benchmark revisions to GDP data, but they did little to change the basic story of the economy.

by **RDR** on Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:26 pm

Bernanke stresses tools, not near-term strategy

Federal Reserve board chairman Ben Bernanke stressed that the central bank has the tools it needs to conduct rate policy, but gave little clues how the tool would be used over the next six months. In testimony to the House Financial Services panel, Bernanke said that rates would stay at historic lows for an extended period. He spent the majority of the testimony describing how the central bank was confident that it could smoothly tighten policy when needed. Bernanke also defended the Fed from Congressional critics. He asked members to reject a bill that would give the General Accountability Office more oversight over the Fed's market operations.

U.S. June factory orders rise 0.4%

Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 0.4% in June, outperforming expectations from Wall Street analysts, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected orders to fall 1%, following a gain of 1.1% in the prior month. Orders for durable goods fell 2.2%, an improvement from the government's prior estimate of a 2.5% drop. Orders for nondurable goods rose 2.7%. Excluding transportation equipment, new factory orders rose 2.3%. Orders for core capital goods, which are used by businesses to expand or update their productive capacity, rose for the second consecutive month, gaining 2.6% in June. Meanwhile, overall shipments rose 1.4%, following 10 consecutive months of declines. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.1% in June, and were down for 11 consecutive months, the longest streak of declines since comparable data were first published in 1992.

Non-manufacturing industries contract in July: ISM

U.S. non-manufacturing industries contracted for the 10th consecutive month in July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 46.4% in July from 47.0% in June. Economists expected a small increase to 48%. Readings under 50% indicate that most firms say business is still getting worse, or at least not getting better. Seven of 18 industries were growing in July. The new orders index fell to 48.1% from 48.6%. The business activity index fell to 46.1% from 49.8%.

Personal incomes fall 1.3% on stimulus timing Real consumer spending falls 0.1%, third drop in past four months

Job losses moderate in July Jobless rate dips to 9.4% as 247,000 nonfarm payrolls lost

Productivity rises 6.4%, fastest rate in six years

U.S. companies slashed their workers' hours in the second quarter, boosting the productivity of the workplace at an annualized rate of 6.4%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. It was the fastest increase in productivity in the nonfarm business sector in nearly six years. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 5.4%. Unit labor costs - a key indicator of inflationary pressures - plunged at a 5.8% rate, the largest decline in nine years and a slightly larger drop that the 5.3% decline expected by economists. Hourly compensation rose just 0.2% in the second quarter.

Economy leveling out, but rates to stay low a while Fed to stop buying Treasurys in October, FOMC says

U.S. June trade deficit widens to $27 billion

Imports of goods and services into the United States rose for the first time in nearly a year in June, driven by higher oil prices, the government said Wednesday. Excluding oil, however, imports fell to the lowest level in five and a half years. The U.S. trade deficit rose to $27 billion in June from a 10-year low of $26 billion in May, the Commerce Department estimated. Most of the increase in imports and exports in June was driven by higher prices, not higher volumes. In inflation-adjusted terms, the trade deficit fell to the lowest level in nearly 10 years.

July retail sales fall despite cash for clunkers

U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July despite a boost from the government's cash-for-clunkers subsidy, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. It was the first decline in seasonally adjusted sales in three months. The report shows that consumer spending is still weak despite attempts by the government to stimulate demand. Sales at most kinds of stores declined in July. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for sales to rise 0.8%. Falling gasoline prices in July led to a 2.1% decline in sales at gasoline stations. Excluding gas, retail sales rose 0.1. Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.6%, against an expectation of a 0.1% increase.

Consumer prices unchanged in July

U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July, after seasonal adjustments, and were down 2.1% year-over-year in the sharpest annual decline since 1950, the Labor Department reported Friday. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected no change in the monthly consumer price index. For July, energy prices fell 0.4%, and food prices fell 0.3%, while prices rose for goods such as new vehicles, tobacco, medical care and apparel. The core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in July, matching analysts' expectations. Of note, shelter prices in July fell 0.2%, the largest decline since 1982, while prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs fell 1.3%, the largest decline since 1979. In June the overall CPI rose 0.7%, while the core gained 0.2%.

Consumer sentiment falls in August, UMich says

The U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly declined in early August to 63.2 from 66.0 in July, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. It is the lowest reading since March, and is significantly worse than the 69.0 reading expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Industrial production rises for first time since October Output rises 0.5% in July as auto production surges 20%

Builders' confidence inches higher in August Sentiment index rises to 18, highest in more than a year

by **RDR** on Tue Aug 18, 2009 9:41 am

New York factories expanding in August

Business improved for manufacturers in New York in August, according to the Empire State index released Monday by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The index rose to 12.1 from negative 0.6 in July. It's the first positive reading since April 2008, and the highest since November 2007. Readings over zero mean most firms said business was improving compared with the prior month. Two key components of the index -- new orders and shipments -- rose to their highest levels in more than a year

Volatility index jumps 17% as global stocks tumble

Global recession over, but will leave scars: IMF

Mortgage delinquencies hit another record: MBA

U.S. housing starts flat in July at 581,000 pace

U.S. housing starts were flat in July, as a small increase in new construction of single-family homes was offset by a large decline in multifamily units. Starts fell 1% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000 from an upwardly revised 587,000 rate in June, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Single-family starts rose 1.7%, while multifamily starts fell 13%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting starts to rise to a 596,000 rate. Building permits for single-family homes rose 5.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000, the fourth increase in a row and a strong sign that building activity may have finally stopped plunging.

Leading indicators rise; bottom of recession seen

An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July. The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

Durable orders jump 4.9% on aircraft bookings

A doubling in aircraft bookings in July drove orders for new U.S.-made durable goods up by 4.9%, the largest increase in two years, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding the 18.4% increase in transportation goods, orders rose 0.8%, the third straight gain and the longest upward streak in four years. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a 4% gain in durable-goods orders in July. Shipments for durable goods rose 2% in July after a 0.7% increase in June. Inventories fell 0.8% in July. Orders are down 26% in the first seven months of 2009 compared with the same period last year.

Consumer confidence index rises to 54.1

U.S. consumers' mood brightened considerably in August, as their expectations about the near future were the most optimistic since the recession began, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in August from 47.4 in July. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to rise to 48.0. Consumer confidence "appears to be back on the mend," said Lynn Franco, head of the consumer research center at the Conference Board. Consumers were a bit more upbeat than they were in July about current economic conditions, but were markedly sunnier about the economy and their own financial situation over the next six months.

Home prices rise for second month in a row, up 1.4% Case-Shiller index down 15.4% in the 12 months through June

Consumers more confident of economy, jobs Confidence index jumps to 54.1 from 47.4, Conference Board says

by **RDR** on Fri Aug 28, 2009 9:01 am

Incomes, inflation flat in July; spending up 0.2%

U.S. personal incomes were unchanged in July as the impact of federal stimulus payments waned and wages rose for the first time in a year, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Consumer spending increased 0.2% last month, led by higher outlays for autos and other durable goods. Spending rose for the third month in a row. With spending rising faster than incomes, the personal savings rate fell to 4.2% from 4.5% in June. Inflation was tame during the month, with consumer prices flat. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices rose 0.1%. In the past year, consumer prices are down 0.8%, while core prices are up 1.4%.

U.S. GDP falls 1% in second quarter

U.S. unemployment rate jumps to 26-year high of 9.7% Nonfarm payrolls fall 216,000 in August, 20th consecutive monthly decline

Initial jobless claims down 4,000 to 570,000

July factory orders rise less-than-expected 1.3%

U.S. and foreign businesses stepped up their demand for capital equipment to expand production in July, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Factory orders increased 1.3% in July, slightly slower than the 2.0% rise expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the fourth straight monthly increase. Orders for durable goods increased 5.1% in July, revised up from 4.9% estimated a week ago. However, orders for nondurable goods fell 1.9%, the sharpest decline since last December. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, known as "core" orders, fell 0.3% in July after rising 3.8% in June, the government said.

U.S. Aug. ADP employment down 298,000

Companies in the U.S. private sector shed 298,000 jobs in August, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for August. The decline in employment was more than the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a decline of 250,000 in nonfarm payroll in August, which also includes the government sector. The August ADP fits with the trend of "less bad" economic data. Employment losses are diminishing but are likely to persist for several more months, according to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC that prepares the report.

Economy stabilizing, Fed's Beige book says Rebound led by factories, residential real-estate

Homeowners lost more than $5 trillion in wealth from the collapse of the bubble.
...
Another tentative sign of a recovery came from reports of slight pickups in demand for temporary workers in many districts. Some economists believe that hiring part-time work is a precursor to a return in hiring.

But the most glowing reports, such as they were, came from the factory sector.

"The majority of reports indicated that manufacturers were cautiously optimistic," the report said. Several districts reported some gains in new orders.

Initial jobless claims fall 26,000 to 550,000

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Boosted by low prices and a home-buyer tax credit, pending sales of existing homes rose in July for the six straight month, the longest streak on record, a real estate trade group reported Tuesday. The pending home sales index rose 3.2% in July, the National Association of Realtors said. The index is 12% above July 2008. Pending homes sales in July rose in the South and West. The index is based on sales contracts on existing homes. The NAR reports on sales of existing homes once the sales closes, usually six to eight weeks later.

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Conditions for the nation's manufacturers expanded for the first time in 19 months in August, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The ISM index rose to 52.9% in August from 48.9% in July. This is the first time the index has been above the breakeven point since January 2008. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 50.5%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

Ford U.S. August sales rise 17%

U.S. consumer credit down record amount in July

U.S. consumers reduced their credit burden by a record amount in July, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt fell $21.55 billion, or at a 10.4% annual rate, in July to $2.47 trillion. This is the sixth straight monthly drop in consumer credit. Consumers have retrenched since the financial crisis hit the economy in full force last September. Credit has fallen in every month since then except January. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected consumer credit to decline by $4.3 billion. This is the longest consecutive string of declines in credit since the second half of 1991. In the subcategories, credit-card debt fell $6.11 billion, or 8.5%, to $905.58 billion. This is the record 11th straight monthly drop in credit card debt. Non-revolving credit, such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans fell a record $15.44 billion or 11.7% to $1.57 trillion.

by **RDR** on Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:02 am

Home prices rise for second month in a row, up 1.4% Case-Shiller index down 15.4% in the 12 months through June

U.S. consumer sentiment picks up in early Sept.

Bernanke: Recession is over

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the recession has ended - at least based on the numbers. "From a technical point [of view], the recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke told a conference at the Brookings Institution. Bernanke said there is a "risk" that labor markets will remain weak through 2010 because growth will be too anemic to create jobs. Bernanke noted that many economists now expect the labor market to recover slowly. But he said this was only a forecast and might be wrong.

Buffett Says It's Over

Households' net worth rises first time in 2 years

American households were $2 trillion richer on June 30 than they were three months earlier, the first time in two years that household net worth has increased, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday in its quarterly flow of funds report. Household wealth rose in the second quarter at a 17% annual rate, or $2 trillion, to $53.1 trillion after falling at a 13% rate in the first quarter. The rally on Wall Street was the main reason for the increase in household wealth, but rising home prices contributed as well. Consumers continued to pay down debts or have their debts written off at a record pace. In the second quarter, household debt fell at a 1.7% annual rate to $13.7 trillion, matching the record percentage decline in the fourth quarter.

Treasurys fall further after Philly Fed jumps

Short-term Treasury prices fell slightly Thursday, pushing yield up, after the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index on manufacturing jumped far more than forecast in September. The Philly Fed index rose to 14.1 this month from 4.2 in August, which was the first positive reading in nearly a year

U.S. CPI up 0.4% in August on higher gasoline prices Core inflation rate rising at slowest pace in five years

by **RDR** on Fri Oct 02, 2009 9:23 am

U.S. Q2 GDP down 0.7% vs 1.0 prev est

U.S. real gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised to a decline of 0.7% annualized from the earlier estimate of a 1.0% drop, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The improvement was unexpected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected second-quarter growth to be revised to down 1.2%. The revision to second-quarter GDP was largely due to smaller declines in business investment and in exports and an upturn in government spending. On a year-on-year basis, growth is down a record 3.8% in the second quarter. A key measure of inflation was unrevised from the prior estimate of a 2.0% gain. On a year-on-year basis, core inflation rose 1.6%, the slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2003. Corporate profits increased a revised 3.7% quarter-to-quarter, compared with a 5.7% rise previously estimated.

Private-sector jobs fall by 254,000 in Sept.: ADP

Private-sector firms in the United States cut 254,000 jobs in September, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. It's the fewest positions lost since July 2008. In August, a revised 277,000 jobs were lost, ADP said. Goods-producing jobs fell by 151,000, including 71,000 in manufacturing. Services-producing jobs fell by 103,000. Economists are expecting a decline of 167,000 in nonfarm payroll jobs when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on its September estimate on Friday.

Ford's September sales drop not as bad as feared Chrysler, GM sales nearly halved, Daimler down but Hyundai soars

Pending U.S. home sales up seven months in a row Residential construction spending rises at fastest pace in 16 years

Spending soars to highest in eight years on clunkers' Real disposable incomes off 0.2%, marking third monthly decline in a row

Retail stocks retreat after job losses accelerate

U.S. Aug. factory orders down 0.8%

U.S. and foreign businesses slowed their demand in August for capital equipment to expand production, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Factory orders decreased 0.8% in August, slower than the 0.5% fall expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods decreased 2.6% in August, revised down from 2.4% estimated a week ago. This is the biggest drop since January. Orders for nondurable goods rose 0.8%. Core capital equipment orders fell 0.9% in August, revised up from 1.9% estimated a week ago, the government said.

Job losses accelerate to 263,000 in September U.S. unemployment rate rises to 9.8%, a 26-year high

U.S. Sept. ISM services highest since May 2008

The service sectors of the U.S. economy expanded for the first time in a year in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 50.9% from 48.4% in August. This is the highest level since May 2008. The increase was larger than expected. Economists were looking the index to rise to 50.0%. The closely watched employment index rose to 44.3% in September from 43.5 in August. The services sector has been improving slowly since it hit 37.4% last Novemmber.

Trade gap narrows on drop in crude imports

The U.S. trade gap unexpectedly narrowed in August to $30.7 billion on a big drop in imports of crude oil, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Imports fell by $913 million, or 0.6%, to $158.9 billion in August, as imports of crude oil fell by $1.28 billion. Exports rose by $228 million, or 0.2%, to $128.2 billion, the highest since December. Exports were led by autos, metals and soybeans. Exports of capital goods fell to the lowest level in four years. Imports and exports were boosted by increased trade in autos and auto parts. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected to the trade gap to widen to $33.6 billion in August.

U.S. initial jobless claims drop 33,000 to 521,000

Oil ends above $75 as stocks rally, dollar falls

Consumer prices rise 0.2% in September Home-ownership costs fall for first time since early 1990s

Except for autos, U.S. Sept. retail sales healthy

U.S. retail sales dropped 1.5% in September after the government's cash-for-clunkers subsidy ended, while sales excluding autos rose at a healthy pace, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. It was the largest decline in seasonally adjusted retail sales since December. In September, sales of motor vehicles dropped 10.4%, the largest decline in four years, more than reversing a 7.3% gain in August. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.5% in September. The results were stronger than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who were forecasting a 2.3% decline in overall sales and a 0.3% gain in sales excluding autos

Fed minutes reflect disputes seen in speeches

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting reflect the disputes that have flared in public since the closed-door meeting ended on Sept. 23. The wide range of opinions about the economic outlook and the Fed's unprecedented policies had been expected by Fed watchers given the "cacophony" heard from officials in their public remarks. While most Fed officials agreed that a recovery had started, there was little agreement about the strength of the expected upturn. There was a "range of views" expressed about the Fed's unprecedented credit-easing policies. Some Fed officials wanted to boost the size of the Fed's purchase of mortgage securities, while one wanted to end the program early. There was no appetite for hiking rates at this meeting because "the cost of the economy turning out to be weaker than anticipated could be relatively high," the minutes said. The Fed decided to extend its purchase of MBS and asset-backed securities into the first quarter to smooth them out and avoid any sudden end that might jolt markets.

Letter of the day? W Housing could take double dip down in 2010

Consumer sentiment pulls back in early Oct, UMich

Consumer sentiment pulled back in early October, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. The consumer sentiment index fell to 69.4 from 73.5 in September. The decrease was sharper than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for sentiment to slip to 72.0. Sentiment had jumped by 8 points last month to its highest level since January 2008. Many economists thought the gain was unsustainable given the tough economic climate and some retreat would occur. The long-term average of the sentiment index is in the high 80s.

U.S. Sept. industrial production up 0.7%

Led by a rebound in autos, metals, and high-tech, U.S. industrial production increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter, the fastest growth in four years and the first quarterly increase since the recession began in late 2007, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities rose 0.7% in September after an upwardly revised 1.2% gain in August and a 0.9% increase in July, the Fed said. The 0.7% increase in output in September was stronger than the 0.4% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Manufacturing output rose 0.9% in September. Capacity utilization rose to 70.5% in September from a revised 69.9% in August.

General Electric profit slumps 44% Conglomerate beats Street profit outlook, but with significantly lower sales

by **RDR** on Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:50 am

U.S. leading indicators up 1% in September

Leading economic indicators rose 1% in September, the sixth straight increase and a strong signal that a "recovery is developing," the Conference Board reported Thursday. Eight of the 10 indicators were positive in September, the private research group said. Over the past six months, the index of leading indicator has risen 5.7%, the fastest increase since 1983. The index of coincident indicators was flat in September after two small increases in July and August. "These numbers strongly suggest that a recovery is developing," said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the research organization. "However, the intensity of that recovery will depend on how much, and how soon, demand picks up."

Dollar Rises and Sends Indexes Down Sharply

Dollar Rise Squeezes ETFs and Indexes

U.S. home prices rise 1.2% in Aug.: Case-Shiller

The market value of U.S. homes in 20 major cities rose by 1.2% compared with July, the fourth monthly increase in a row, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. In August prices rose in 17 of 20 cities. In the past year, prices are down 11.3% in the 20 cities. Prices are down 29.3% from the peak. Prices in all 20 cities were lower in August 2009 than in August 2008. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.

Oct. consumer confidence falls for second month

U.S. consumers became more cautious in October, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 47.7 in October from an upwardly revised 53.4 in September. Economists expected the index to hold steady at around 53.2. The September confidence index was revised up from the initial estimate of 53.1. The present situation index fell to 20.7 from 23.0, its lowest level in 26 years. The expectations index fell to 65.7 from 73.7 in September. Consumers were more pessimistic about the labor market, with those claiming jobs are "hard to get" rising to 49.6% from 47.0% in the prior month.

U.S. jobless claims inch lower in latest week

U.S. GDP rises 3.5% as stimulus kicks in Gains in consumer spending, inventories, housing drive growth

Sept. new home sales drop first time in 6 months

U.S. new home sales unexpectedly fell 3.6% in September, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000 was well below the 438,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in August were revised to a 417,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 429,000. This is the first decline in new home sales after five consecutive monthly gains. New-home sales are down 7.8% compared with a year ago. The supply of homes on the market fell to 251,000 in September, which is the lowest level since November 1982. Median sales prices have fallen 9.1% in the past year to $204,800.

VIX jumps 22% to July levels as stocks sink

U.S. consumer spending retreats after clunkers

U.S. consumer spending fell sharply in September after the government's cash-for-clunkers program ended, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in September after a 1% gain in August. Real disposable incomes fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the fourth decline in a row. In current-dollar terms (not inflation-adjusted), spending fell 0.5% in September. Current-dollar incomes were flat. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected nominal spending to fall 0.4% and incomes to fall 0.1%. With spending falling faster than incomes, the personal savings rate rose to 3.3% of disposable income from 2.8% in August.

U.S. Sept. durable goods orders rise 1.0%

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods rose in September, rising 1.0% on stronger demand for machinery, defense and capital goods, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding the 1.1% increase in transportation goods, orders rose 0.9%. The increase was in line with the forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It was the fourth increase in total orders in the past six months. Shipments rose 0.8% in September, but were down 0.8% excluding transportation goods. Inventories fell 1.0%, the ninth consecutive monthly decline.

Factory orders rise 0.9%, 5th increase in 6 months

Orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in September on gains in machinery, autos, defense goods and chemicals, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Factory orders have risen in five of the past six months, but are down 13.9% in the first nine months of 2009 compared with the same period a year ago. September's 0.9% gain was stronger than the 0.6% increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods increased an upwardly revised 1.4% in September, compared with the 1% gain estimated last week. Orders and shipments for nondurable goods increased 0.6%. Inventories fell 1%, the 13th consecutive decline.

Oct. ISM factory index surges to 55.7%

Conditions for the nation's manufacturers in October improved markedly, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index jumped to 55.7% in October from 52.6% in September. This is well above forecasts. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 53.0%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Below the headline, the key employment index improved to 53.1 in October from 46.2 in the prior month.

No surprises from Fed policy statement

The Federal Reserve made only small changes to the policy statement released on Wednesday, holding policy steady and repeating it expects to hold interest rates low for extended period. As expected, the Fed kept its target for its federal funds rate set at a range of zero to 0.25%. The Fed repeated that it "continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The Fed said it would purchase less debt from federal housing agencies. The Fed said it would buy $175 billion of agency debt, down from prior plans to purchase $200 billion. The Fed said there was a limited availability of the securities.

Private-sector jobs fall by 203,000 in Oct.: ADP

Private-sector firms in the U.S. cut 203,000 jobs in October, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. It was the fewest jobs lost since July 2008. In September, a revised 227,000 jobs were lost compared with the 254,000 originally reported, ADP said. Goods-producing jobs fell by 117,000in October, including 65,000 in manufacturing and 51,000 in construction. Services-producing jobs fell by 86,000.

by **RDR** on Fri Nov 06, 2009 9:53 am

Unemployment rate hits 10.2% in October

The U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% in October, topping the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate to 10%, with 150,000 lost payroll jobs. The unemployment rate of 10.2% was the highest since April 1983. An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.5%, the highest on record dating to 1995.

Gold hits $1,100 an ounce as unemployment worsens

Gold futures rose to a new record high of $1,100 an ounce Friday after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate topped 10% in October, raising the metal's appeal as a safe asset. Gold for November delivery gained 1% to $1,100 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest level for a front-month contract. The more actively traded December contract rose to $1,101.90 an ounce.

U.S. jobless claims fall 20,000 to 512,000

The number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 512,000 in the week ending Oct. 31, the lowest since January, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial jobless claims have been above 500,000 for 51 straight weeks. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected initial claims to fall to about 520,000. Continuing state claims fell by 68,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.75 million, the lowest since March. The number of people claiming benefits of any kind in the week ending Oct. 17 was 9.53 million, not seasonally adjusted, up 136,000 from 9.36 million in the previous week.

Gold hits new highs as dollar drops

Weekly jobless claims drop 12,000 to 502,000

U.S. trade gap widens sharply in Sept.

The U.S. trade deficit widened by 18.2% in September to $36.5 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $32.0 billion. This is the biggest percentage increase in the monthly trade gap since February 1999. The data suggests that third quarter growth will be revised down from its initial estimate of a 3.5% gain. Imports rose faster than exports in September. Trade activity has recovered to levels not seen since the financial crisis hit in the fall of 2008. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $22.1 billion, the largest since last October. The deficit for the year-to-date now totals $274.58 billion, down from $551.44 billion in the first nine months of 2008.

Consumer sentiment pulls back in Nov.: U. of Mich.

Consumer sentiment pulled back in early November, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. The consumer sentiment index fell to 66.0 from 70.6 in October. The decrease was unexpected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for sentiment to rise to 71.8. After hitting 73.5 in September, the index has now fallen in two straight months.

U.S. Oct. retail sales up 1.4% on rebound in autos

U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in October, led by a rebound in auto sales, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. Excluding the 7.4% increase in auto sales, retail sales rose 0.2% in October. Auto sales had plunged 14.3% in September after the expiration of the government's cash-for-clunkers program. The 1.4% gain in October was higher than the 1% gain forecast by economists, but a large downward revision to September's sales offset the upside surprise. Economists were expecting sales excluding autos to rise 0.3%. October sales were mixed. Sales of durable goods, other than autos, were weak. Sales at the mall stores were generally healthier.

U.S. Nov. Empire State index 23.5 vs 34.6 Oct

After hitting a five year high in the previous month, manufacturing activity in the New York expanded at a slower pace in November, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 23.5 in November from 34.6 in October. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted similar declines. The employment index also fell and remained barely positive. The index is of interest to investors and economists primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the Institute for Supply Management's October national factory survey due out in two weeks may show. In October, the ISM manufacturing index advanced 2.7 points to 55.7, the highest reading since April 2006.

Bernanke sees moderate U.S. growth in 2010

The U.S. economy still faces considerable challenges, but the most likely outcome is moderate economic growth with subdued inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday. "I expect moderate economic growth to continue next year," Bernanke said in remarks to the Economic Club of New York. "Final demand shows signs of strengthening, supported by the broad improvement in financial conditions." However, "significant economic challenges remain," he said. "The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak, and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible." Unfortunately, economic growth probably won't be strong enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate.

U.S. Oct. factory output inches up 0.1%

The output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities rose 0.1% in October, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. The gain was due almost entirely to a big jump in utility output. Every other sector except material production was flat or down. The October increase was less than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Analysts had been expecting a 0.4% gain. Capacity utilization - a gauge of slack in the economy -- rose to 70.7% in October from 70.5% in September.

U.S. Nov. home builders' index flat at 17

U.S. home builders remained discouraged about their business in November, but were a bit more hopeful about future sales, according to a monthly survey released Tuesday by the National Association of Home Builders. The home builders' sentiment index held steady at 17 in November, but October's index was revised lower to 17 from the 18 previously reported. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting an improvement to 19. The survey had risen to 19 in September but fell in the past two months as it appeared that the federal $8,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers would expire on Nov. 30. The November survey was conducted before Congress voted to extend the subsidy to June and to expand it to some repeat buyers.

Wholesale prices up 0.3% on higher energy, food costs U.S. data show October's core PPI off 0.6%, led by drop in car and truck prices

U.S. Oct. leading indicators rise 0.3%

The index of leading economic indicators rose for the seventh consecutive month in October, showing that a recovery is "unfolding" in the U.S. economy, the private Conference Board said Thursday. The leading indicators rose 0.3% in October after a 1% gain in September, the private research group said. Six of the 10 indicators were positive. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the leading index to rise 0.4%. The index is up at a 10.2% annual pace in the last six months. The index of coincident indicators was unchanged in October after a 0.1% decline in September. The coincident index has been essentially flat since June

Weekly jobless claims unchanged at 505,000

by **RDR** on Fri Nov 20, 2009 10:44 am

Delinquencies, foreclosures break record MBA: 14.41% of mortgages delinquent or in foreclosure in third quarter

Existing-home sales rise to 6.10 million, up 10.1%

Resales of U.S. houses increased 10.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.10 million, the National Association of Realtors estimated Monday.

Consumer confidence improves slightly in November

The Conference Board reported modestly higher consumer confidence in November. The New York-based research organization's confidence index came to 49.5, up from a revised 48.7 for October. "The moderate improvement in the short-term outlook was the result of a decrease in the percent of consumers expecting business and labor market conditions to worsen," noted Lynn Franco, the Conference Board's director of consumer research. "Income expectations remain very pessimistic and consumers are entering the holiday season in a very frugal mood." Confidence had been expected to lessen to 45.5 as opposed to October's original reading of 47.7, according to a MarketWatch survey of economists. The Conference Board commissions a monthly survey based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. Its index is compared against a 1985 benchmark of 100.

FDIC: Number of troubled banks rises to 552

The number of distressed banks in the U.S. rose to the highest level in sixteen years, according to a report released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Tuesday. The FDIC said that the number of troubled banks rose to 552 at the end of September from 416 at the end of June and 305 at the end of March. This is the largest number of banks on its "problem list" since the end of 1993. Banks insured by the FDIC swung to a total quarterly profit of $2.8 billion, more than three times the $879 million they earned during the same period last year and significantly better than their combined $4.3 billion net loss in the second quarter of 2009. The FDIC reported that its Deposit Insurance Fund swung to an $8.2 billion loss, which the agency hopes will be made up by advance payments of $45 billion in fees.

Fed sees slow recovery holding jobless rate high

Federal Reserve officials believe the recovery is going to expand at a slow rate while unemployment will continue to remain high, according to the minutes of their closed-door Nov. 3 and Nov 4 meetings released Tuesday.The Fed forcast that the unemployment rate could stay elevated in 2010 at 9.7% and would only drop modestly to 8.6% in 2011, according to the summary of the latest meetings. The unemployment rate hit 10.2% in November, a 26-year high.

Consumer confidence ticks higher in November Conference Board: Conditions seen in pessimistic light with bias to be frugal

U.S. GDP rises 2.8% in third quarter

As consumer spending gained the economy expanded at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, compared with a contraction of 0.7% in the prior quarter, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The 2.8% growth rate is below the government's first estimate of 3.5% due to downward revisions in consumer spending and business investment in nonresidential structures, as well as changes to imports and exports. Compared with a year ago, real GDP is down 2.5%. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the third-quarter result to be revised to growth of 2.8%.

October new home sales gain on rise in South

U.S. new home sales rose 6.2% in October on strong results in the South, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The rise in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 was well above the 390,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales rose 23.2% in the South. Sales fell 20% in the Midwest, and 5.1% in both the Northeast and the West. The pace of new-home sales in September was revised slightly higher to a level of 405,000. New-home sales are up 5.1% compared with a year ago. The supply of homes on the market fell to 239,000 in October, representing a 6.7-month supply. The median sales price in October hit $212,200, compared with $213,200 in the prior year.

CORRECT: Initial jobless claims fall to 466,000

The number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 466,000 in the week ended Nov. 21, the Labor Department reported. The drop compared to a revised 501,000 who filed initial claims in the week ended Nov. 14. The consensus forecast among economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been for 495,000 initial claims in the latest week. The latest number snaps a string running a little more than a year during which first-time claims exceeded the 500,000 mark. (Correcting the number in the headline from 496,000.)

Obama: Too much debt could fuel double-dip recession

U.S. stocks advance as weaker dollar fuels buying

Fed's Plosser calls for higher interest rates

Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, became the first top central bank official to call for higher interest rates in this cycle. In a speech on Tuesday, Plosser said the Fed had to start raising interest rates sooner rather than later and had to begin withdrawing excess cash from the financial system. If the Fed does not act soon "the inflation rate is likely to rise to levels that most would consider unacceptable," he warned. Plosser will not be a voting member of the Fed interest-rate committee until 2011. Plosser was relatively upbeat about the economic outlook, calling for growth to average around a 3% annual rate over the next two years.

by **RDR** on Tue Dec 01, 2009 3:16 pm

U.S. ISM fades to 53.6%, still signals expansion

Pending-home sales index rises 3.7% in October

Signed sales contracts on existing homes in the United States rose for the ninth straight month in October, a real estate industry group reported Tuesday. The pending home sales index rose a seasonally adjusted 3.7% in October from September, the National Association of Realtors reported. The index is up 31.8% compared with last October. The index rose 6% in September. The index tracks sales contracts on pre-owned homes. Typically, it takes a month or two after the contract is signed for the sale to close. At that point, the sale is booked in the NAR's existing-home sales report.

Private-sector jobs fall 169,000 in November, ADP says

Economy improving modestly, Beige Book says

The U.S. economy "improved modestly" in late October and November, with moderate gains in consumer spending, manufacturing and housing offsetting "dismal" conditions in commercial real estate, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book report on the economy. Eight of 12 Fed regions reported the economy had picked up since mid-October, while conditions were little changed or mixed in the four bank regions stretching from Ohio and Pennsylvania to the south. Labor markets remained weak, "with further layoffs, sluggish hiring and high levels of unemployment." Business contacts told the Fed that there was little or no upward pressure on wages or consumer prices.

U.S. stock rally vanishes Jobs data spurs hope, but materials sector leads sharp pullback

Inflation will not get out of hand, Bernanke vows

When the time comes, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to keep inflation under control, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday, adding that that time could be far away. With the U.S. economy still very fragile and unemployment so high, inflation isn't a pressing problem right now, Bernanke said in a talk to a group of economists in Washington. For now, getting the economy back on its feet is the top priority. "The Fed is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so," he said. However, inflation "appears likely to remain subdued for some time."

U.S. ISM fades to 53.6%, still signals expansion

Gold hits record above $1,217 an ounce on strong demand

Productivity revised down, still best in 6 years

U.S. nonfarm business productivity increased at an 8.1% annual rate in the third quarter, revised down from the 9.5% estimated a month ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a revision down to 8.6%. Unit labor costs - a significant marker for inflationary pressures from wages - fell 2.5%, revised up from a 5.2% decline reported a month ago. In manufacturing, productivity increased at a record 13.4% annual rate. Unit labor costs fell 6.1% annualized in the sector.

Unemployment rate falls to 10% in November

The U.S. labor market improved markedly in November, with the unemployment rate falling back to 10% and job losses shrinking to the lowest level in nearly two years, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 11,000 in November, the fewest since December 2007. Payroll losses in September and October were revised lower by a total of 159,000. The report was much better than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who were looking for 100,000 fewer jobs and a steady 10.2% unemployment rate.

Initial jobless claims fall 5,000 to 457,000 Total number collecting benefits rises to 9.6 million

Unemployment rate falls to 10% in November Job losses shrink to 11,000 in November, lowest in 2 years

More firms say they plan to hire Employers' hiring plans turn positive for first time in a year: Manpower

Initial jobless claims rise 17,000 to 474,000 Total jobless claims, including extended benefits, top 10 million

Trade gap narrows sharply in October Exports aided by weaker dollar

by **RDR** on Sat Dec 12, 2009 11:23 pm

Consumer sentiment soars in early Dec

Consumer sentiment improved markedly in early December, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. The consumer sentiment index rose to 73.4 in early December from 67.4 in November. The increase was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for sentiment to rise to 69.0. This is the highest level of consumer sentiment since September. The strong stock market and last week's better-than-expected job report were seen boosting consumer moods.

House approves sweeping, post-crisis bank reform

House lawmakers on Friday approved the most significant increase in the regulation of U.S. banks and other corporations since the Great Depression, placing new restrictions on the activities of the nation's biggest banks, reining the power of the Federal Reserve and providing more help for troubled homeowners. The legislation, which passed 223-202, includes new fees, leverage limits and other restrictions on 'too-big-to-fail' institutions, legislation to audit the Federal Reserve's balance sheet within two years, a provision giving shareholders a say on the pay of top executives and investor protection regulations.

Nov retail sales up for third month in last four

U.S. retail sales rose a better-than-expected 1.3% in November for third monthly increase in the past four months, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. The sales gains were widespread across most kinds of retail outlets, including autos, gasoline, department stores and hardware stores. Only clothing- and furniture-store sales declined. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for retail sales to rise 0.5%. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.2%, the biggest gain since January. Wall Street had expected a increase of 0.4%. Excluding gasoline and autos, sales increased 0.6%. (Editor's note: An emailed news alert incorrectly characterized the monthly increase as the third consecutive.)

Obama proposes tax cuts for small businesses

The federal government should cut taxes on small businesses to encourage them to invest and hire more workers, President Barack Obama said Tuesday. Obama proposed that the federal government do more to help create jobs in three main areas: small business growth, infrastructure investments, and investments in energy-efficiency. The centerpiece of Obama's plan is a proposal for new tax cuts to encourage small businesses to invest and to hire more workers. The capital-gains tax on new investments would fall to zero for a year, and tax breaks for expensing investments would be extended. The plan also includes a still-to-be-designed tax cut for small business to hire more workers.

Fed stands pat on key points at last '09 meeting

The Federal Reserve stood pat on the key points of monetary policy following its meeting Wednesday. The Fed was more upbeat about growth in its policy statement. As expected, the Fed continued to signal that it will hold rates steady for a long time. The federal funds rate has been set at the historically low range of zero to 0.25% for the past year. Economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period," the Fed said. One change in the statement was that the Fed listed all of its emergency loan facilities and spelled out their expiration dates. None of the dates were new, but the Fed is choosing not to extend them further.

Leading Economic Indicators rise 0.9% in November

The index of leading economic indicators rose for the eight straight month, pointing to an improved economy in 2010, the private Conference Board said Thursday. The index increased 0.9% in November after a 0.3% gain in October, the research group said. Six of the 10 leading indicators were positive. For the first time since December 2007, employment did not make a negative contribution to the index, potentially a good sign for future job growth, the board said.

U.S. jobless claims rise in latest week

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Dec. 12 rose 7,000 to 480,000. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to fall to 465,000. Claims in the prior week were revised to 473,000 from the intial estimate of 474,000. The four-week average fell for the 15th straight week. Ian Pollick, economist at TD Securities, said the rise in jobless claims was unsettling, but said he was comforted by the fact that claims remain below 500,000.

Producer prices rise 1.8% in Nov on energy prices

Wholesale prices rose a larger-than-expected 1.8% in November after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices accounting for about three-fourths of the increase, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The producer price index has risen 2.4% in the past year, the government said. This is the first rise since November 2008. The core PPI - which excludes food and energy prices - rose 0.5% in November, more than expected. Leading the advance were higher truck and cigarette prices. Core prices are up 1.2% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a 1.0% rise in the November headline PPI and a 0.3% gain in the core rate. The PPI had risen 0.3% in October, while the core rate was down 0.6%.

by **RDR** on Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:12 pm

New home sales fall 11;3% as subsidy ends

Sales of new homes fell 11.3% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000 as a popular tax break for first-time homeowners was set to expire, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. It was the lowest sales pace since April and followed months of steadier sales boosted by the tax break that was set to expire on Nov. 30. The tax credit was ultimately extended until June and expanded to include repeat buyers. November's sales were far weaker than the 421,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The number of unsold homes dropped 2.1% to 235,000, the lowest in 38 years.

U.S. wage growth accelerates in November

Compensation earned by U.S. workers rose 0.3% in November, another signal that labor markets are slowly improving, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The increase in wages and salaries was the best since April, and helped to push up total personal incomes by 0.4% in November, the biggest gain since May and in line with expectations of economists. After inflation, after-tax disposable incomes rose 0.2% for the third straight month. Inflation-adjusted real spending increased 0.2% in November after a 0.4% gain in October. The personal savings rate was steady at 4.7%.

U.S. Nov. existing home sales rise 7.4%

Home buyers rushed to qualify for an expiring federal tax credit, boosting resales of U.S. homes by 7.4% to a 6.54 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The sales pace was the highest since February 2007 and was the third straight large increase. Sales are up 28% since August. Buyers were rushing in November to finalize sales ahead of the Nov. 30 expiration for the tax credit, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate lobbying group. The tax credit was subsequently extended and expanded to include repeat buyers. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting existing home sales to rise to a 6.28 million annual pace in November.

U.S. GDP revised down to 2.2% annual rate

The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in two years during the third quarter, but the revised annual growth rate of 2.2% was much slower than initially reported, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. U.S. real gross domestic product increased for the first time since the spring of 2008, boosted by higher consumer spending, a rebound in investments in homes, a slower pace of inventory reduction, more exports, and robust government spending. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting only a minor revision to 2.7% in the third estimate. The revisions to third-quarter GDP were in three major areas: Business investment, consumer spending, and inventories.

Initial jobless claims fall 28,000 to 452,000

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell a seasonally adjusted 28,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Dec. 19, hitting the lowest level since September 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for an initial claims level of 470,000. The four-week average of new claims fell 2,750 to 465,250, which also the lowest level since September 2008. In the week ended Dec. 12, the number of people who continued to collect benefits fell 127,000 to 5.08 million, the lowest level since February. The four-week average of continuing claims fell 90,000 to 5.23 million, the lowest level since March. The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.9%.

Senate approves short-term debt ceiling increase

Senators on Thursday voted to approve a short-term increase in the U.S. debt limit, boosting it to $12.4 trillion. The increase of $290 billion only extends borrowing capability through February, however, so lawmakers will need to revisit the debt ceiling next year. The vote was 60-39.

Home prices flat in October, Case-Shiller finds

The market value of U.S. homes in 20 major cities was flat in October and failed to keep pace with gains so far in 2009, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. In October prices rose in just seven of 20 cities. In the past year, prices are down 7.3% in the 20 cities. Prices in all 20 cities were lower in October 2009 than in October 2008. The figures are not seasonally adjusted

U.S. consumer confidence higher in December

Consumer confidence rose for the second straight month as more Americans expect the U.S. economy to improve in 2010, The Conference Board reported Tuesday. The index climbed to 52.9 in December from a revised 50.6 in November. Confidence had been expected to rise to 54.0 compared to November's original reading of 49.5, according to a MarketWatch survey of economists.

Alan S. Blinder: The Case for Optimism on the Economy - WSJ.com

Weekly unemployment claims drop 22,000 to 432,000

The number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 432,000 in the week ended Dec. 26, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected initial claims to decrease to 455,000. The four-week average of initial claims dropped 5,500 to 460,250. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims in the week ended Dec. 19 declined 57,000 to 4.98 million. The four-week average of continuing claims fell 122,500 to 5.1 million. The gradual decline in continuing claims over the past few months suggest companies are no longer getting rid of workers, and may even be hiring. Yet year-end data tends to be especially volatile because of holidays, bad weather and other one-time factors, economists say.

Ford ends year with big sales gains; shares rally Chrysler, GM post declines amid mostly upbeat month

Pending home sales index plunges 16% Expiration of federal subsidy drives sales lower, NAR says

U.S. Nov factory orders up 1.1%

U.S. and foreign businesses stepped up their demand in November for capital equipment to expand production, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Factory orders increased 1.1% in November, faster than the 0.8% rise expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders for durable goods increased 0.2% in November, unrevised down from the estimate late last month. Orders for nondurable goods rose 1.8%. Core capital equipment orders rose 3.6% in November, revised up from 2.9% estimated a week ago, the government said.

U.S. private sector sheds 84,000 jobs in Dec.: ADP

Private-sector firms in the U.S. eliminated 84,000 jobs in December, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. It was the fewest jobs lost since March 2008. The private-sector has shed jobs for 23 months in a row. In November, a revised 145,000 jobs were lost compared with the 169,000 originally reported, ADP said. The ADP index does not include government jobs. The ADP jobs data come two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its estimate of December nonfarm payrolls. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for payrolls to rise 10,000 in the BLS survey, the first gain in two years.

U.S. Dec. ISM services index rebounds to 50.1%

The service sectors of the U.S. economy rebounded in December, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 50.1% from 48.7% in November. Despite the improvement, the increase was below expectations. Economists were looking the index to rise to 51.0%. The index had been above 50 for three months in the summer and fall but then slipped under the threshold in November. The closely-watched employment index rose to 44.0% in December from 41.6 in November. The employment index has been below 50 since May 2008. It hit a low of 31.1 in November 2008.

Slow recovery still most likely scenario, Fed says

Recent signs of an improving economy did not sway Federal Reserve officials from the belief that the recovery would be gradual relative to past recoveries and inflation would remain tame, according to minutes of the latest policy meeting released Wednesday. Although the November employment report was better than expected, Fed officials observed that "more than one good report would be needed to provide convincing evidence of recovery in the labor market." There was a sharp divide among officials about the forecast for inflation longer-term. The argument was so intense that the discussion about the price outlook continued long after the formal vote on policy, which usually signals the end of the closed-door gatherings. There was not a lengthy discussion of the Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities that are scheduled to end in late March. Only a few Fed officials pushed to expand the plan and only one thought it should be scaled back. The FOMC put off a discussion of "alternative approaches to implementing policy in the longer-run" until this year. The committee will next meet on Jan 26-27.

by **RDR** on Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:05 pm

Jobless claims edge up 1,000 to 434,000

The number of initial claims for state unemployment benefits was essentially unchanged in the week of Jan. 2, rising 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000 after dramatic declines the previous two weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits of any kind, including extended federal benefits, rose by 518,100 in the week of Dec. 19 to 10.6 million, not seasonally adjusted. The number of people collecting regular state benefits fell by 179,000 in the week ending Dec. 26 to a seasonally adjusted 4.8 million, the lowest in nearly a year. Compared with a year ago, initial claims are down 15%, while state continuing claims are up 13%.

U.S. Dec. nonfarm payrolls drop by 85,000

U.S. job losses resumed in December after revisions showed payrolls rose in November for the first time in nearly two years, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 85,000 in December following a revised 4,000 gain in November. During 2009, payrolls fell by 4.2 million. Since the recession began two years ago, payrolls have fallen by 7.3 million. The official unemployment rate remained at 10% in December. An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.3% from 17.2%. Details of the report were weak, with few signs of further improvement in labor conditions.

Automakers post second best month of 2009 Ford, Asian manufacturers shine while Chrysler, GM post declines

12 Dr. Dooms shred 2010 investing optimism Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

U.S. jobless claims up in latest week

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose in the latest week by the most in five weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Jan. 8 rose 11,000 to 444,000. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to inch lower to 433,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to 433,000 down from 434,000. This is the highest level since the week ended Dec. 19. The four-week average of initial claims fell 9,000 to 440,750. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits fell 211,000 to 4.60 million in the week ending Jan. 2. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell 151,500 to 4.86 million.

U.S. trade gap widens in Nov.

The U.S. trade deficit widened by 9.7% in November to $36.4 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $34.8 billion. Exports rose for the seventh straight month, but imports rose at a faster pace in November. The government also revised the deficit in October to $33.2 billion from $32.9 billion. As a result the deficit for the year now totals $340.6 billion, down from $654.1 billion in the same period last year. The U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed to $20.2 billion in compared with $22.7 billion in October.

U.S. Dec. retail sales decline 0.3%

U.S. retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in December on widespread weakness across different kinds of stores, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. The decline was unexpected, as economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a 0.5% gain. Auto sales disappointed, dropping 0.8% in dollar terms despite an increase in unit sales reported by the automakers. Excluding auto sales, retail sales fell 0.2%. Sales for all of 2009 fell 6.2% compared with 2008 to $4.14 trillion. It was the largest decline on record, dating back to 1992. It was only the second decline on record; the other was the 0.5% drop in 2008.

Existing home sales plummet 16.7% in December

Sales of U.S. existing homes plunged 16.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million from 6.54 million in November as a popular tax credit was set to expire, a national real estate trade group estimated Monday. The 16.7% percentage decline from November to December was the largest on record, the National Association of Realtors reported. The decline was larger than the 11% drop to 5.80 million that was expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales in December were up 15% compared with December 2008. The median sales price rose to $178,300 in December, up 1.5% compared with a year earlier. It's the first year-over-year increase in prices since August 2007.

by **RDR** on Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:26 am

U.S. stocks turn higher after confidence data Market Snapshot - MarketWatch

Sales of new U.S. homes fell 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000 in December from 370,000 in November after a popular tax credit for buyers was set to expire, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. It was the lowest seasonally adjusted sales pace since March. For all of 2009, sales of new homes fell 8.6% to a record-low level of 374,000, down about 23% from 2008's level. The records date back to 1963. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a small gain in December to about 365,000. The number of unsold homes dropped 1.7% to 231,000, the lowest in 38 years.

Fed holds steady on policy but is not unanimous

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held steady on monetary policy but was not unanimous. The Fed held interest rate policy steady and repeated it expects to hold interest rates low for extended period. The Fed said that it would end its program to by mortgage backed securities at the end of March. Kansas City Fed president Thomas Hoenig dissented. He wanted the Fed to get rid of its pledge to keep rates low for an extended period. In its statement, the Fed was slightly more upbeat about the economic outlook. The Fed said it would end its TAF program in March. Under that program, the Fed has auctioned credit to banks.

U.S. jobless claims remain elevated in latest week

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits remained elevated in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Jan. 23 fell 8,000 to 470,000. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to drop below 450,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 34,000 to 478,000 compared with the initial estimate of a increase of 36,000 to 482,000. the highest level since November. The four-week average of initial claims rose 9,500 to 456,250. A Labor Department official said there were no reports of backlogs at state offices. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits held steady fell 57,000 to 4.60 million in the week ending Jan 16. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell 94,250 to 4.7 million. Overall, 11.5 million Americans received federal and state unemployment benefits on an unadjusted basis in the week ended Jan. 9, the latest period for which the data is available. This is down from 12.0 million in the prior week.

Consumer sentiment hits 2-year high, UMich says

U.S. consumer sentiment improved in January, as a closely followed survey rose to its highest level in two years. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 74.4 in January from 72.5 in December, according to media reports. It's the highest since January 2008. The preliminary mid-month reading was 72.8. Economists were expecting an increase to 73.0 in the final numbers. The index has been little changed in the past five months after falling to 55.3 in November 2008.

U.S. 4Q GDP up 5.7% on swing in inventories

Coming out of the worst recession in generations, the U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in six years during the fourth quarter of 2009, even as consumer spending and business investment remained tepid, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Real gross domestic product increased at a 5.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final three months of the year. About two-thirds of the growth came via the swing in inventories. The 5.7% increase was in line with the 5.4% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Even with healthy growth in the second half of the year, the economy shrank 2.4% in 2009, the worst drop since the 10.9% decline in 1946.

U.S. Jan. ISM factory index jumps to 58.4%

Conditions for the nation's manufacturers in January improved markedly, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM factory index jumped to 58.4% in January from 54.9% in December. This is well above expectations. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 56.0%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

Obama sends $3.8 trillion budget to Congress

President Barack Obama on Monday sent Congress a $3.8 trillion budget blueprint for fiscal year 2011, proposing to pump billions of dollars into creating jobs but freezing some government spending in a bold attempt to hasten a recovery in the U.S. economy. The budget plan forecasts a record $1.6 trillion deficit in fiscal 2010 but sees the red ink declining to $1.3 trillion in fiscal 2011. The budget would also eliminate tax cuts for those making more than $250,000.

Ford January U.S. sales surge 24.6%

U.S. Dec. pending home sales index rises 1%

Buyers returned to the market for U.S. preowned homes in December after a federal tax credit was reinstated, according to a survey of real estate agents released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors. The pending home sales index rose 1% in December after plunging 16.4% in November, with buyers reacting first to the expiration and then to the return of the tax credit, NAR data showed. The index is up 10.9% compared with December 2008. The gain in the pending sales index portends a similar gain in existing home sales for January, which will be reported in three weeks. In December, existing home sales fell 16.7%.

U.S. jobless rate, MetLife, Airgas bid in focus FRIDAY MORNING'S TOP STORIES

The unemployment rate fell in January to 9.7% from 10% in December, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls contracted by 20,000 in January. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a 25,000 gain in payrolls and had been looking for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 10.0%. Under revisions released Friday, job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007 totaled 8.4 million, in line with expectations.

Planned layoffs rise for first time since July: Challenger

Private sector sheds 22,000 jobs in Jan., ADP says

Private-sector firms in the U.S. eliminated 22,000 jobs in January, the 24th decline in a row, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. It was the fewest jobs lost since 22,000 jobs were added in January 2008. In December, a revised 61,000 jobs were lost, compared with the 84,000 originally reported, ADP said. The ADP jobs data come two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its estimate of January nonfarm payrolls. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for payrolls to rise 20,000 in the BLS survey.

Timing of exit will be data-dependent: Bernanke

Federal Reserve board chairman Ben Bernanke said the timing of the exit from the historically low interest rates would depend on economic conditions but the Fed would be ready to do so. Bernanke said the Fed would also be flexible on the exact combination of tools it would use to move rates higher. No final decision on which rate to target had been made, the Fed chairman said. Bernanke did lay out possible tightening route. He said the Fed may continue testing its tools to mop up money from the financial system and then scale up these programs as the time for tightening draws near. The "actual firming" might come through an increase in the interest that the central pays to banks for their excess reserves. This was just "one possible sequence" Bernanke said. Bernanke stressed that the Fed could exit more rapidly if needed. Bernanke's comments came in remarks prepared for delivery to a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee. Even though the hearing was cancelled because of the snow, the Fed went ahead and released his testimony.

Pending home sales up 1%, recover from November plunge

Fed stands pat on rates at last meeting of the year Spells out end of emergency programs

U.S. producer prices soar 1.4% on energy costs

U.S. wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in January on double-digit increases in gasoline and home heating oil, the Labor Department estimated Thursday. Core prices of finished goods - which exclude food and energy goods - rose 0.3% in January, led by higher prices for light trucks and other capital goods. The 1.4% increase in the producer price index was higher than the 0.9% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The core rate of 0.3% was also higher than the 0.1% gain expected. The producer price index is up 4.6% in the past year, the largest year-over-year gain since the financial crisis began in late 2008. The core PPI is up 1% in the past year.

Fed hikes discount rate, says not tightening

The Federal Reserve announced late Thursday that it was raising its discount rate in order to push banks to borrow from the private market for short-term credit. In a statement, the Fed said it would raise its discount, or primary credit rate, to 0.75% from 0.50% effective on Friday. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke signaled last week that the Fed was mulling the move. Fed watchers had expected the move to come at the next Fed meeting in March. Today's action shows a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed officials. The Fed said the move is intended to "normalize" their operations as the financial crisis winds down. The change is not a tightening and does not signal any change in monetary policy, the Fed said.

by **RDR** on Wed Feb 24, 2010 3:35 pm

U.S. new-home sales fall to record-low level

Sales of new U.S. homes plunged 11.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the lowest rate on record dating back to 1963, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast sales to rise slightly to 355,000, with buyers taking advantage of a new federal tax credit. Sales in December were revised higher to 348,000 from 342,000 previously reported. Sales are down 6.1% compared with January 2009's 329,000, which was the previous record-low rate. The number of homes for sale rose 0.4% to 234,000 in January. At the January sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell that inventory.

U.S. Dec. Case-Shiller home price index down 0.2%

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities fell a not-seasonally adjusted 0.2% in December compared with November, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices were down 3.1% in the past year. A quarterly index covering the entire nation showed home prices fell 1.1% in the fourth quarter compared with the third. National home prices were down 2.5% in the past year.

Jan. Home Sales Drop Sharply from Dec., But Are At Highest Level for Month of January Since 2007

U.S. Ccnsumer spending rises 0.3% in January

Real consumer spending increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in January to the highest level since May 2008 in a further sign of a modest economic recovery, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. Adjusted for inflation, real spending on goods increased 0.8%, while spending on services remained anemic, rising 0.1%. After adjusting for inflation, after-tax incomes fell 0.6% in January, mostly due to large non-withholding tax payments reflecting higher incomes from investments and bonuses in 2009. With spending rising faster than incomes, the personal savings rate fell to 3.3% of disposable income from 4.2% in December. It was the lowest savings rate since October 2008.

U.S. ISM manufacturing falls to 56.5% in February

The expansion at U.S. manufacturing firms remained very broad based in February, according to the Institute of Supply Management's survey released Monday. The ISM index fell to 56.5% in February from 58.4% in January. Readings over 50% indicate more firms said business was improving than said it was worsening. The new orders index dropped to 59.5% from 65.9%, the production index fell to 58.4% from 66.2%, while the employment index rose to 56.1% from 53.3%. Economists were expecting the ISM index to fall to 57.5% in February.

Existing-home sales fall 7.2% to 7-month low

Resales of U.S. homes and condos fell 7.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million, the lowest in seven months, the National Association of Realtors reported Friday. Sales of existing homes have fallen two consecutive months after rising steadily through the fall on the back of a federal subsidy for first-time home buyers. "It's not good news," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate industry lobbying group. "There is rising concern about the strength of the housing recovery." Inventories of unsold homes fell 0.5% to 3.265 million, or 7.8 months of supply at the current sales pace.

GDP revised up to 5.9% on slower inventory cuts

The U.S. economy grew slightly faster than previously reported in the fourth quarter, but details of the revision to gross domestic product show final sales in the United States were actually weaker than reported a month ago, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a 5.9% seasonally adjusted annualized pace, revised up from 5.7% estimated last month. The revision was exactly in line with expectations. Nearly two thirds of the growth was accounted for by changes in inventories, not by final sales. Compared with the first GDP estimate, inventories were bigger, business investments were higher, and exports were higher.

Weekly jobless claims increase 22,000 to 496,000

The number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 496,000 in the week ended Feb. 20, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It's the highest rate since mid-November and the sixth increase in the first eight weeks of 2010. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected initial claims to drop to 460,000. The four-week average of initial claims rose 6,000 to 473,750. In the week ended Feb. 6, the number of people collecting extended federal benefits fell by 320,000 to 5.68 million, not seasonally adjusted. Altogether, 11.55 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefits in the week of Feb. 6, down from the previous week's level of 11.8 million.

Private sector sheds 20,000 jobs in Feb., ADP says

Private-sector firms in the U.S. eliminated 20,000 jobs in February, the 25th decline in a row, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. It was the fewest jobs lost since 22,000 jobs were added in January 2008. In January, a revised 60,000 jobs were lost, compared with the 22,000 originally reported, ADP said. The adverse weather had only a very small effect on the ADP report due to the methodology used to construct it, ADP said.

by **RDR** on Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:31 am

EMPLOYMENT REPORT | Angry Bear

Is the Recovery Losing Steam? By DAVID LEONHARDT

Calculated Risk: Employment Report: 36K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Case-Shiller CPI Now Tracking CPI-U; Real Interest Rates Are Once Again Negative

Temporary Help Bouncing Back - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com

Comparing This Recession to Previous Ones: Job Losses - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com

Comparing This Recession to Previous Ones: Job Losses - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com

NFIB Statement on Job Creation by Small Business - The Entrepreneurial Mind

Calculated Risk: Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

The Weather Effect on Jobs - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Increases to 16.8% in February - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Economists React: Labor Market ‘Dodged a Big Fat Snowball’ - Real Time Economics - WSJ

The Capital Spectator: INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR JOBS

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 29,000 to 469,000

The number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits declined by 29,000 in the week ending Feb. 27 to a seasonally adjusted 469,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims had risen sharply the previous two weeks, in part because of administrative backlogs, extreme weather and the holiday. The four-week average of initial claims - a better gauge of the trend than the volatile weekly number - fell by 3,500 to 470,750. The number of people receiving regular state jobless benefits declined by 134,000 to a seasonally adjusted 4.5 million. The total number of people receiving benefits of any kind rose by 145,000 to 11.5 million, not seasonally adjusted.

Trade gap narrows sharply in January, U.S. data show Deficit reverses following two months of big increases

On an unadjusted basis, crude imports fell to 245 million barrels, the lowest since February 1999.

by **RDR** on Thu Mar 11, 2010 2:19 pm

First-time weekly jobless claims decline by 6,000

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 in the latest week, the second decline in a row. In the week ended March 6, initial claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 462,000 from a revised 468,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting claims to dip to 460,000. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000 to 475,500, the highest rate since November. The number of people continuing to receive regular unemployment checks climbed 37,000 in the week of Feb. 27 to a seasonally adjusted 4.56 million. The number of people receiving extended federal benefits fell 159,000 to 5.53 million, not seasonally adjusted, in the week of Feb. 20. All told, 11.36 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefits in the week of Feb. 20, not seasonally adjusted.

Consumer sentiment dips in March

U.S. consumer sentiment dipped in early March, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. Amid signs that the labor market is approaching a trough but remains frail, the consumer sentiment index declined to 72.5 in March from 73.6 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting the sentiment index to hit 74 in March.

U.S. stocks rally as jobs data lifting sentiment Benchmarks post second week of gains; Dow has best day since mid-Feb.

Nonfarm payrolls fall 36,000; jobless rate 9.7%

U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined for the 25th time in the past 26 months, falling by 36,000 in February to 129.5 million, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Job losses were concentrated in construction, schools, retail and publishing. Manufacturing jobs rose by 1,000, the second increase in a row. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. Severe snow storms during the survey week may have depressed the payroll count, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it could not quantify the impact. Total hours worked fell by 0.6%, likely due to weather-related shutdowns. The employment report was better than expected, as economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a drop of 90,000. They expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8%.

U.S. housing starts drop 5.9% to 575,000 rate

U.S. housing starts fell about 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 575,000 in February as several massive snow storms hit the East and South, according to data released Tuesday by the Commerce Department. New construction was down in the Northeast and South, but up in the Midwest and West. Starts of single-family homes fell 0.6% to a 499,000 pace, while starts of large condos and apartment building plunged 43%. In the past year, starts of single-family homes are up 39%, while starts of multifamily units are down 41%. Building permits - which aren't as affected by weather as starts are - dropped 1.6% to 612,000 in February. Permits for single-family homes fell 0.2% to a 503,000 rate.

Fed stands pat on rates, policy wording

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low level Tuesday and made no changes to the key "extended period" policy pledge. The Fed's policy statement, released after a closed-door meeting, said the economic situation is "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The Fed's description of the economy was a little more upbeat about the job market. But Fed officials also noted that housing remained weak. The Fed said that its purchases of more than a trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities would be finished by the end of the month as scheduled. The Fed kept the door open for more purchases, saying that it will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote growth. There was one dissent to the policy stance. Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, objected to the extended period wording for the second straight meeting.

Producer prices fall 0.6% in Feb.

Wholesale prices fell a larger-than-expected 0.6% in February after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices falling 2.9%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. This is the largest decline since last July.The producer price index has risen 4.4% in the past year, the government said. The core PPI - which excludes food and energy prices - rose 0.1% in February, more than expected. Core prices are up 1.0% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a 0.3% fall in the headline PPI and a 0.1% decline in the core rate. The PPI had risen 1.4% in January, while the core rate was up 0.3%.

Feb leading indicators tick up; slow recovery seen

A slow recovery is expected this summer, and economic conditions will improve moderately in the near term, the Conference Board said Thursday. As expected by analysts, the index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in February, marking 11 consecutive gains, following an increase of 0.3% in January. The interest rate spread and real money supply made the largest positive contributions in February, while average weekly manufacturing hours and stock prices made the largest negative contributions. "Going forward, the big question remains the strength of demand," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board. "Without increased consumer demand, job growth will likely be minimal over the next few months."

U.S. existing-home sales fall 3rd month in row

Resales of U.S. homes and condos fell 0.6% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.02 million, the lowest level in eight months, raising doubts about the durability of the housing recovery, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. Sales of existing homes have fallen three consecutive months after rising steadily through the fall in response to a federal subsidy for first-time home buyers. The tax credit has been restored and expanded to repeat buyers, but there has been no increase in sales yet. Inventories of sales on the market jumped in February, rising 312,000 to 3.59 million, the highest since September.

Durable goods orders rise for 3rd straight month

Demand for U.S.-made durable goods rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% to $178.1 billion in February, the third straight increase in a key forward-looking indicator, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday. New orders for machinery and civilian aircraft were strong in February, while new orders for autos, defense goods and electronics declined. The 0.5% increase in durable goods orders was weaker than the 1.7% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. However, January's orders were revised higher, from a 2.6% gain to 3.9%. December's orders were also revised higher.

February new-home sales at 308,000 annual rate

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell slightly in February - the fourth straight monthly drop - to yet another record low. New-home sales slipped 2.2% to an annual pace of 308,000, seasonally adjusted, which is the lowest rate since the government began tracking the data in 1963, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast annualized sales of 318,000. Sales for January were revised to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 315,000, up from 309,000 as previously reported. The median price of a new home sold shot up 6.1% to $220,500 in February from January's revised level of $207,900.

Calculated Risk: Rail Traffic Declines Slightly in February

Calculated Risk: Construction Spending Declines in January

CARPE DIEM: ISM Report: Economy Expands for the 10th Month

Jobless claims fall 14,000 in latest week - MarketWatch

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell 14,000 in the week ended March 20 to a seasonally adjusted 442,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted claims would drop to 450,000, but the latest figures reflect annual revisions to the data that put claims 10,000 lower than they would have been under the old methodology, a Labor official said. The four-week average -- a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number - declined by 11,000 to 453,750. In the week of March 6, about 5.7 million jobless workers were receiving extended federal benefits, down 345,000 from the week before.

U.S. GDP revised to 5.6% vs. 5.9% earlier

The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace in six years during the final three months of 2009, fueled by a huge inventory adjustment, strong business investments and modest consumer spending, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a 5.6% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, revised down from the 5.9% pace reported a month ago. In the past year, real GDP has risen 0.1%. For all of 2009, GDP fell 2.4%. The revision was largely in line with expectations of economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who figured GDP would be revised down to 5.7%.

Stock futures deeper in red after ADP figures - MarketWatch

Losses on U.S. stock futures accelerated Wednesday after ADP said private-sector employment dropped by 23,000, confounding economist expectations for a 40,000 rise. Shortly after the data, S&P 500 futures fell 3.6 points to 1,165.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 5.5 points to 1,960.00.

Consumer confidence rebounds in March Recoups much of Feb. loss

Case-Shiller: U.S. home prices down 0.4% in Jan. Economic Report - MarketWatch

Compared with a year ago, prices were lower in 11 of the 20 cities, led by a 17.4% drop in Las Vegas.

Prices in the 20 cities sampled are now back to the levels seen in the summer of 2003.

In Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa, prices hit new lows following the financial crisis.

For the 20 metropolitan areas in which repeat sales of homes are tracked in the Case-Shiller index, prices were down 32.6% from the peak in 2006. Prices are now back to levels seen in the summer of 2003.

Ford U.S. March sales grow by nearly 40% - MarketWatch

Geithner to meet China vice premier in Beijing

Payrolls rise 162,000, best gain in three years Excluding Census workers, U.S. payrolls rise by 114,000 in March

Jobless claims rise 18,000 in latest week

Job gains exceed losses for second time in two years Layoffs decline to three-year low, as job turnover slows further

U.S. trade gap widens in Feb. as imports increase

The U.S. trade deficit widened by 7.4% in February to $39.7 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $38.5 billion. Imports rose faster than exports in February. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $16.5 billion in compared with $14.2 billion in the same month last year. This is the smallest deficit since last March.

Weekly jobless claims jump 24,000 to 484,000 - MarketWatch

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits jumped 24,000 in the latest week, but the increase appeared to stem largely from the Easter holiday and other onetime factors that distorted the data. Initial claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 484,000 in the week ended April 10, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of initial claims -- a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number - increased 7,500 to 457,750. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast claims to drop to 430,000. Continuing claims in the week of April 3 climbed 73,000 to 4.64 million.

by **RDR** on Fri Apr 16, 2010 11:31 am

March housing starts up for third straight month

New construction of U.S. houses expanded for the third straight month in March, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Starts rose 1.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted 626,000 annualized units, strongest than the 610,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the highest level of starts since November 2008. Starts were revised to an increase of 1.1% in February to 616,000 units. This compared with the prior estimate of a 5,9% drop to 575,000 units. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 7.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000. This is the highest level of permits since October 2008.

U.S. existing-home sales rise 6.8% in March

Boosted by a federal subsidy to buyers, resales of U.S. homes and condos rose 6.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million, a real estate trade group reported Thursday. Sales were up 16.1% compared with March 2009. Existing-home sales rose in all four regions of the country in March. "The tax credit has done its work," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said in releasing the data. Median home prices rose 0.4% in the past year to $170,700, the NAR said. Inventories of unsold homes increased 1.5% in March to 3.58 million, an 8-month supply at the current sales pace.

Jobless claims fall 24,000 to 456,000

The number of people filing an initial claim for unemployment benefits declined by 24,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 456,000, the first drop in three weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of people collecting regular state benefits dropped by 40,000 to a seasonally adjusted 4.65 million in the week of April 10. All told, in the week of April 3, 10.54 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefits, down 538,000 from the previous week's 11.08 million.

Durables orders tumble 1.3% on plunge in aircraft

Demand for U.S.-made durable goods dropped for the first time in four months as orders for new aircraft plunged 67%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Orders for durable goods fell 1.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted $176.7 billion after a 1.1% gain in February. Excluding transportation goods, however, new orders rose 2.8% to $136.5 billion in March, the fastest growth since the recession began in December 2007. Outside of civilian aircraft and defense goods, demand was brisk for most types of durable goods. Orders for core capital equipment goods - the kinds of equipment businesses invest in to maintain or expand their productive capacity - rose 4%, the largest increase since June.

New-home sales surge 27% to 411,000 pace Expiring tax credit could be goosing sales, temporarily

Goldman charged with fraud over Paulson CDO trade Shares of investment bank drop 13% on news of SEC lawsuit

Consumer confidence rises in April

U.S. consumer confidence rose in April, reaching its highest level since September 2008, as views about current and future conditions improved, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 57.9 in April, compared with 52.3 in March. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an April reading of 53.5. The present situation index in April rose to 28.6 from 25.2 in March, while the expectations index improved to 77.4 from 70.4. "Looking ahead, continued job growth will be key in sustaining momentum," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's consumer research center.

Fed holds status quo on monetary policy - MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low level Wednesday and made no changes to the key "extended period" policy pledge. The Fed's policy statement, released after a closed-door meeting, said the economic situation is "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The Fed's description of the economy was a little more upbeat but still very cautious. It said that the "labor market is beginning to improve," but quickly noted that employers are still reluctant to add to payrolls. The statement repeated that inflation is likely to be subdued. The Fed statement made no mention of asset sales. Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Bank dissented, saying that the extended period language was "limiting the Fed's flexibility to begin raising rates modestly."

Jobless claims fall 11,000 to 448,000 - MarketWatch

U.S. 1Q GDP rises 3.2% as consumers lead the way - MarketWatch

U.S. consumer spending rose at the fastest rate in three years in the first quarter, powering the economy to a 3.2% growth rate, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. The 3.2% increase in real seasonally adjusted gross domestic product was exactly as expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. In the first quarter, private domestic demand was the main engine of growth. Consumer spending rose at a 3.6% annual rate, while business investments in equipment and software increased at 13.4% pace. Final sales to domestic purchasers increased at a 2.2% rate, up from 1.4% in the fourth quarter.

by **RDR** on Mon May 03, 2010 10:15 am

Ford U.S. April sales jump 24.7% to 167,542 units

Consumer spending above pre-recession level

Boosted by spending on autos and other durable goods, real U.S. consumer spending increased 0.5% to a record high in March, at last surpassing the pre-recession peak set in November 2007, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. After-tax, inflation-adjusted incomes increased 0.2% in the month, with transfer payments such as unemployment benefits accounting for much of the gain. The tepid income gains should hamper the economic recovery, economists say. With spending growing much faster than incomes in March, the personal savings rate fell to 2.7%, the lowest since September 2008.

ADP shows private sector job gains in April - MarketWatch

Companies in the U.S. private sector added 32,000 jobs in April, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. The increase in ADP employment was in line with expectations. The private sector has now added jobs for three straight months based on revised data. The ADP report comes two days before the Labor Department reports on nonfarm payroll growth for April. Economists are expecting a sizable 185,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls. The ADP report does not include federal workers or temporary census workers. Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC that prepares the report, described the increases are "grudging." The goods producing sector has not turned the corner, he said in a television interview.

U.S. pending home sales rise 5.3% in March

Supported by a tax credit, the pending home sales index rose a seasonally adjusted 5.3% in March, and was up 21.1% compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. In February, the index rose 8.3%, compared with an earlier estimate of an 8.2% gain. For March sales contracts rose 12.7% in the South, 1.9% in the West and 1.2% in the Midwest. Contracts declined 3.3% in the Northeast.

Productivity slows to 3.6% in first quarter, U.S. data show Unit labor costs drop 1.6%, adding to disinflationary pressures

Even with the slowdown in the first quarter, productivity has risen 6.3% over the past four quarters, the fastest growth in 48 years and nearly three times its average growth rate.

In the first quarter, output increased 4.4% on an annualized basis, while hours worked rose 0.8%, the government estimated.

Unit labor costs fell 1.6%, the fourth decline in the past five quarters, in a sign that disinflationary pressures are still strong.

Initial jobless claims drop 7,000 to 444,000 - MarketWatch

Bernanke optimistic about bank lending outlook - MarketWatch

Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that there were some reasons for optimism about the outlook for bank lending although credit remains tight. In a speech to a conference on bank supervision sponsored by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bernanke pointed out that the Fed's latest senior loan officer survey found no net tightening in lending standards for small businesses for the first time since the summer of 2007. "Senior loan officers tell us, at least outside of commercial real estate, they anticipate a modest reduction in their troubled loans over the coming year," Bernanke said. "As a result, bank attitudes toward lending may be shifting," he said.

But, assuming a two step process will result in positive outcomes is not necessarily a good bet to make.

290,000 jobs created in April; jobless rate 9.9%

The American economy added 290,000 jobs in April, which was much better than expected despite temporary hiring for the 2010 U.S. Census. Excluding Census workers, 224,000 nonfarm jobs were created, with the unemployment rate edging up to 9.9% from 9.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the economy to add 185,000 jobs, with the jobless rate holding steady at 9.7%. The data for February was also revised to show a 39,000 increase in nonfarm jobs, compared to an originally reported decline of 14,000. Job gains in March were also revised up to 230,000 from 162,000. Meanwhile, the average workweek in April rose 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours for all nonfarm workers. Average hourly earnings ticked up 1 cent to $22.47.

Weekly jobless claims little changed at 444,000

Trade gap widens on larger petroleum imports Imports, exports rise to highest level since October 2008

Regional details

Imports from Mexico rose to record $20.1 billion. Exports to the European Union increased to $21 billion, the most since late 2008. Exports to Japan and imports from Japan were at the highest levels since October 2008.

The trade deficit with China increased to $16.9 billion in March. So far this year, imports from China have risen 12.4% compared with last year while U.S. exports to China have increased 46%.

U.S. retail sales rise for seventh month in a row Strong receipts at garden centers outweigh weakness at the mall

Stocks Rally on Rise in Exports - Investing - Stocks - SmartMoney.com

Housing starts up 5.8%, while permits plunge 11.5% - MarketWatch

U.S. housing starts increased for the second straight month in April to an 18-month high, the government estimated, but building permits fell sharply, casting doubts on the momentum of the housing recovery. Housing starts rose an estimated 5.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 672,000 from an upwardly revised 635,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. However, building permits fell 11.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 606,000, the lowest in six months. Permits for single-family homes, considered by many analysts to be the number in the housing release, fell 10.7% to a 484,000 annual rate.

by **RDR** on Mon May 24, 2010 6:37 pm

U.S. consumer prices fall 0.1% in April - MarketWatch

Consumer prices in the United States fell 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April as energy, housing, auto and apparel prices declined, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. It was the first decline in the consumer price index since March 2009. The consumer price index is up 2.2% in the past year. The core CPI -- which excludes food and energy prices in order to get a better view of underlying inflation -- was unchanged in April, lowering the year-over-year increase in core inflation to 0.9%, the lowest rate since January 1966. The report was better than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch nailed the 0.1% drop in the headline CPI, but were expecting a 0.1% gain in the core rate.

14.01% of mortgages delinquent or in foreclosure - MarketWatch

The percentage of loans in foreclosure or with at least one payment past due was a non-seasonally-adjusted 14.01% in the first quarter, down from 15.02% in the fourth quarter of 2009, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. But the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties, which includes mortgages at least one payment past due but doesn't include those in foreclosure, rose to 10.06%, from 9.47%. Mortgages in the foreclosure process hit a record high at a non-seasonally-adjusted 4.63%, up from 4.58% in the fourth quarter. "The issue this quarter is that the seasonally adjusted delinquency rates went up while unadjusted rates went down," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist, in a news release. "Delinquency rates traditionally peak in the fourth quarter and fall in the first quarter and we saw that first quarter drop in the data. The question is whether the drop represents anything more than a normal seasonal decline or a more fundamental improvement."

April sales of existing homes rise 7.6% on tax credit Inventories surge 11.5% to 4.04 million, suggesting glut of supply

April new-home sales level highest since May '08 - MarketWatch

U.S. new-home sales rose 14.8% in April to their highest level since May 2008, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The increase in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 was well above the 425,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in March were revised to a 439,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 411,000. New-home sales are up 47.8% compared with a year ago. The months' supply of homes on the market fell to 5.0 months in April from 6.2 months in March. Median sales prices have fallen 9.5% in the past year to $198,400.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall to 460,000 - MarketWatch

U.S. growth revised down to 3.0% in first quarter - MarketWatch

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.0% pace in the first quarter - lower than the 3.2% previously reported - owing mainly to smaller increases in consumer spending and investment in business software, the government said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected first-quarter growth to be revised up to 3.5%. The latest revision incorporates data that is not available for the first reading of GDP. Consumer spending, the largest contributor to GDP, grew at 3.5% annualized rate in the first quarter, down from the initial estimate of 3.6%. The increase in business investment, meanwhile, was reduced to 3.1% from the original estimate of 4.1%.

April durable goods orders up healthy 2.9% - MarketWatch

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods rose 2.9% in April on stronger demand for airplanes and communications equipment, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding the 16.1% increase in transportation goods, orders fell 1.0%. The increase exceeded the expected 2.5% rise forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Total orders have risen in four of the past five months. March orders were revised to show almost no change from the prior estimate of a 0.6% decline. Shipments rose 1.4% in April, and were up 1.8% excluding transportation goods. Inventories rose 0.7%. Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, often called core durable-goods orders, fell 2.4% in April after a 6.5% gain in March.

U.S. Income growth outpaces spending in April - MarketWatch

U.S. jobless claims climb 25,000 to 471,000 - MarketWatch

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits shot up 25,000 in the latest week to 471,000, the highest level in a month, according to the Labor Department. The four-week average of initial claims - a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number - rose by 3,000 to 453,500. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted initial claims would drop to a seasonally adjusted 440,000 from last week's reading of 446,000. A Labor Department official said there were no unusual factors to explain the increase.

April leading indicators dip - MarketWatch

The economic recovery may "lose a little steam," though it will continue through the summer, the Conference Board said Thursday. The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in April - the first decline since March 2009 - following a slightly downwardly revised reading of a 1.3% gain for March. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected a gain of 0.2% in April. While strengths among leading indicators have been widespread in recent months, the index's six-month growth rate has "moderated" since December, according to the Conference Board. In April, four of the 10 leading indicators rose, with the largest positive contribution from the interest rate spread. The largest negative contribution came from building permits.

Job growth seen a little less robust in May

U.S. factory orders up 1.2% in April

Orders for U.S.-made factory goods increased a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in April, led by a tripling in orders for civilian airplanes and parts, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Excluding transportation goods, orders fell 0.5%. Shipments rose 0.6%. Orders for core capital equipment goods fell 2.6% after rising 6.7% in March. Inventories declined 0.2%. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.24, the lowest since July 2008 and a sign that inventories may be too low. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting factory orders to rise 1.8%. March orders were revised higher to a 1.7% gain from 1.1% earlier.

Hiring weak in May except for Census workers, U.S. says Unemployment rate falls to 9.7% as 322,000 drop out of labor force

Weekly jobless claims fall 10,000 to 453,000 - MarketWatch

See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

U.S. private-sector adds 55,000 jobs in May: ADP - MarketWatch

Recovery can survive coming fiscal drag: Bernanke

Recovery can survive coming fiscal drag: Bernanke

May leading indicators rise; slower growth seen

Slower economic growth is expected for the rest of the year, with public debt and deficits weighing on prospects "on both sides of the Atlantic," said Bart van Ark, chief economist of the Conference Board, on Thursday. The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4% in May, following no growth in April. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the index to gain 0.7%. Five of the 10 indicators that make up the index rose in May, with the largest positive contribution from the interest rate spread. The largest negative contribution came from stock prices.

U.S. initial jobless claims rise 12,000 to 472,000 - MarketWatch

Home building craters after tax break expires - MarketWatch

As expected, U.S. home builders sharply reduced construction as a federal tax break for home buyers expired, according to estimates released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Housing starts fell 10% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 in May, the lowest level since December. The details were even worse, as starts of single-family homes plunged 17% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 468,000, the lowest in a year. Building permits fell sharply in May for the second straight month, with total authorizations falling 5.9% to a 574,000 annual pace after falling 10% in April. Single-family permits fell 10% for the second month in a row to a 438,000 pace.

Weekly jobless claims fall 3,000 to 456,000 - MarketWatch

U.S. existing-home sales dip 2.2% in May

Fed stands pat on rates, downgrades outlook

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its target for the federal funds rate at a range of zero to 0.25% and maintained its pledge to keep rates at this historic low level for an "extended period" to support the recovery. In a statement after their two-day meeting, the Fed downgraded the outlook. They said financial conditions "have become less supportive of economic growth" largely as a result of the European debt crisis. There was one dissent from the policy statement by Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Hoenig has dissented from every statement this year.

by **RDR** on Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:38 pm

New-home sales plunge 33% to record low in May Economic Report - MarketWatch

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall 19,000 to 457,000 - MarketWatch

U.S. Q1 GDP revised lower to 2.7% increase - MarketWatch

U.S. real gross domestic product for the first quarter was revised down to an increase of 2.7% annualized from the earlier estimate of a 3.0% rise, the Commerce Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected first-quarter growth to be unrevised at up 3.0%. The revision to first-quarter GDP was largely due to weaker consumer spending and a widening trade deficit. A key measure of inflation was revised slightly higher but remained subdued. Core prices increased 0.7% in the first quarter, up from 0.6% reported earlier. Corporate profits increased a revised 8.0% quarter-to-quarter, compared with a 5.5% rise previously estimated.

U.S. consumer sentiment rises to 2-year high - MarketWatch

U.S. consumer sentiment was the most optimistic in more than two years in June, but remained far below normal levels, according to a survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan. The UMich index rose to 76.0 in late June, up from 73.6 in May and 75.5 in mid-June. The average level of the index is around 87. Economists were expecting the UMich index to come in at 75.5. Consumers expect a very slow pace of economic growth, the survey said. The current conditions index improved to 85.6 from 81.0, while the expectations index rose to 69.8 from 68.8.

U.S. April Case-Shiller home prices rise 0.8% - MarketWatch

Home prices rose 0.8% in April compared with March in 20 major U.S. cities, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. This is the first increase after six straight monthly declines. Prices have moved up 3.8% in the past year. Prices rose in 18 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller in April compared with March. The data are not seasonally adjusted.

U.S. consumer confidence plummets on job worries - MarketWatch

U.S. consumers are increasingly worried about jobs and the economy, the Conference Board said Tuesday, as it reported that its consumer confidence index plummeted to 52.9 in June - the lowest level since March -- from a downwardly revised 62.7 in May. "Increasing uncertainty and apprehension about the future state of the economy and labor market, no doubt a result of the recent slowdown in job growth, are the primary reasons for the sharp reversal in confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of Conference Board's consumer research center. "Until the pace of job growth picks up, consumer confidence is not likely to pick up." Earlier this month the government reported that nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 431,000 in May, but most of the new jobs were temporary jobs at the U.S. Census, with very weak private-sector hiring.

U.S. June ADP employment rises 13,000 - MarketWatch

Private-sector employment rises by 13,000: ADP Economic Report - MarketWatch

Weekly jobless claims climb 13,000 to 472,000 - MarketWatch

The number of people filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 13,000 in the latest week to 472,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to fall to 455,000. The four-week average of initial claims -- a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number - rose by 3,250 to 466,500, the highest level since early March.

U.S. stock futures mildly lower after jobless data Indications - MarketWatch

Pending home sales plunge 30% in May Economic Report - MarketWatch

Private payrolls up 83,000 in June, rate at 9.5% - MarketWatch

Total job growth dropped in June for the first time this year due as a quarter million temporary census workers were laid off, the Labor Department said Friday. Private sector payrolls expanded by a modest 83,000 in June lower than the 115,000 gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% in June from 9.7% in the previous month. This is the lowest level since July 2009. There was a sharp 652,000 decline in the labor force in June. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain steady. Average hourly earnings were flat in June. Economists had been expecting a 0.2% gain. Earnings are up 1.7% in the past year. The average workweek was 34.1 hours.

by **RDR** on Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:20 am

Weekly U.S.jobless claims fall 21,000 to 454,000 - MarketWatch

IMF says U.S. on mend but job rate to stay high

U.S. trade gap widens unexpectedly in May

U.S. retail sales fall 0.5% in June

Sales at U.S. retailers declined 0.5% in June to a seasonally adjusted $360.2 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday, further evidence that the economy has slowed. Sales fell for the second straight month after seven consecutive increases. Sales fell an upwardly revised 1.1% in May. Details of the June report were mixed. The declines were heaviest in sales of durable goods and gasoline. Sales of soft goods were generally healthy. Ahead of the report, economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected total sales to fall 0.4% in June. Excluding the 2.3% drop in motor vehicle sales, retail sales fell 0.1% to $299.2 billion, in line with the 0.2% decline expected.

Retail stocks fall after drop in June sales Retail Stocks - MarketWatch-Report.

Small-business owners say outlook worsens Economic Report - MarketWatch Small-business owners say outlook worsens Economic Report - MarketWatch

Fed saw no need in June to respond to slowdown

Federal Reserve officials concluded at their June policy meeting that the pace of the recovery was likely to be slower than they had earlier hoped, but they saw no immediate need for more easing of monetary policy, according to a summary of their June 22-23 meeting released Wednesday. Officials agreed that it would be a good idea to study what steps "might become appropriate" if the economy took a sharp downturn. Fed officials did not appear overly alarmed about a slowdown. None of the 17 top Fed policymakers are forecasting a double-dip. Only a few cited some risk of deflation. The Fed's formal forecasts made slight downward revisions to growth and inflation in 2010 and 2011 and saw a slightly higher unemployment rate in 2011.

Weekly jobless claims fall 29,000 to 429,000 - MarketWatch

U.S. Consumer Price Index falls 0.1% in June - MarketWatch

The index for U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1% in June, reflecting the third straight monthly decline, the Labor Department reported Friday. Lower gasoline costs mostly accounted for the decline. The closely followed core rate, seen as a better gauge of inflationary trends, rose 0.2% but still remains very low. The core rate excludes volatile food and energy prices. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted a flat reading in overall consumer prices and a 0.1% increase in the core rate. Over the past 12 months, CPI has climbed 1.1% and the core has risen a scant 0.9%, according to government data.

U.S. July consumer sentiment plummets - MarketWatch

Calculated Risk: NY Fed: Manufacturing Conditions improve, but pace "slowed substantially" in July

Calculated Risk: NAHB Builder Confidence falls to lowest level since April 2009

Newmark's Door: "Mystery trader buys all Europe's cocoa"

Companies Step Up Hiring Plans in Latest NABE Survey - Real Time Economics - WSJ

by **RDR** on Mon Jul 19, 2010 12:05 pm

Trending Toward Deflation - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

U.S. housing starts drop 5% to 8-month low - MarketWatch

Bernanke: Fed ready to take more actions if needed

Jobless claims jump 37,000 to 464,000

Existing home sales fall 5.1% as tax credit ends

June new home sales rebound from record low - MarketWatch

Ford profit rises about 13%, sees Q3 uptick - MarketWatch

June durable-goods orders fall sharply - MarketWatch

Weekly jobless claims fall 11,000 to 457,000

Stalled or slower growth in some areas: Beige Book - MarketWatch

Some Federal Reserve district banks reported stalled or slower growth in mid-July, according to a report on current economic conditions, commonly known as the Beige Book, released by the central bank on Wednesday. The report is consistent with the notion that the economy lost some momentum at the end of the second quarter. The report found the economy continued to expand, on balance. The Cleveland and Kansas City Fed banks reported stalled conditions. The Atlanta and Chicago Fed banks reported that the pace of growth had slowed recently. Among those regional banks reporting improvements, several noted the increases were modest, the report said. The tone of the latest Beige Book is decidedly less optimistic than that of the prior Beige Book report released in early June. That report found that conditions had improved in all 12 Fed districts consistent with an expanding recovery.

Home prices rise 1.3% in May: Case-Shiller - MarketWatch

The prices of single-family homes in 20 major cities rose a seasonally-unadjusted 1.3% in May, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices have moved up 4.6% in the past year. Prices rose in 19 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller in May compared with April. This is the second increase after six straight declines. David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said the positive May report is a bit misleading. "A broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery," Blitzer said.

Job worries darken July consumer confidence - MarketWatch

GDP slows in second quarter to 2.4% annual rate - MarketWatch

The U.S. economy lost momentum in the second quarter of the year. Real gross domestic product -- the inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States -- rose at a 2.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, well below the average 4.4% increase over the last six months. The rate of expansion in the first quarter was revised up to a 3.7% rise compared with the prior estimate of a 2.7% increase. Much of the deceleration in the second quarter was due to the trade sector. The 2.4% increase in GDP was close to the 2.5% expansion expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. (Fixes time period in the description of the deceleration.)

July ISM factory index slows to lowest 2010 level

Conditions for the nation's manufacturers slowed for the third straight month, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 55.5% in July from 56.2% in June. The decline was not as sharp as expected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to fall to 55.0%. Despite the drop, the factory sector is still growing. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Below the headline, the report was mixed. The key employment index improved to 58.6% in July from June's 57.8%. On the other hand, new-orders and production slipped in July.

June pending home sales index falls to 75.7 - MarketWatch

Income slows, spending sluggish in June - MarketWatch

Jobless claims rise 19,000 to 479,000 Economic Report - MarketWatch

U.S. July ADP employment up 42,000 - MarketWatch

by **RDR** on Fri Aug 13, 2010 8:13 am

Jobless claims rise 19,000 to 479,000 Economic Report - MarketWatch

Initial jobless claims rise 2,000 to 484,000 - MarketWatch

Reports: Consumer confidence edges up in August - MarketWatch

Consumer confidence as measured by a Reuters/University of Michigan poll improved to 69.6 in August from 67.8 in July, according to reports. Economists polled by MarketWatch expected a rise to 68.8.

July retail sales up for first time in 3 months - MarketWatch

U.S. trade deficit widens sharply in June - MarketWatch

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply by 18.8% in June to $49.9 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. This is the largest trade gap since October 2008 when global trade activity froze in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The trade deficit was much larger than the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $42.5 billion. Imports rose while exports declined in June. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $26.2 billion in compared with $18.4 billion in the same month last year. This is the largest trade gap with China since October 2008.

Fed takes small easing step on weaker outlook - MarketWatch

Federal Reserve policymakers on Tuesday decided to take a small easing step given that the recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been expected. The Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would reinvest maturing mortgage-backed securities back into the market so that its balance sheet does not shrink. Fed watchers described this as a symbolic move designed to show concern with the outlook. As expected, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low level. The central bank made no changes to the key pledge to keep rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended period." Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, dissented for the fifth straight meeting in favor of getting rid of the "extended period" pledge. He also said he did not support reinvesting MBS securities.

Fixed mortgage rates hit record lows: Freddie Mac Mortgages - MarketWatch

U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity falls 0.9% - MarketWatch